Silver erases the ceasefire gains following the strikes on Lebanon; Eyes on negotiations

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FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWSilver prices jumped yesterdayafter the announcement of a two-week ceasefire as easing financial conditionssupported a broader risk-on sentiment. However, those gains were later wipedout when Israel launched an attack on Lebanon, triggering backlash, with Iraninsisting that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement.For now, the ceasefire isstill holding, at least until tomorrow, when the US-Iran negotiations are setto take place in Islamabad. The talks could also be extended if both sidesagree.There’s still a risk thatthe conflict could restart at any moment, since the US and Iran have not officiallyended the hostilities. Nonetheless, the short-term bias has turned more bullishfor silver, as traders reprice the hawkish expectations. If the negotiations wereto fail and the war were to resume, we can expect silver to drop back towardsthe monthly lows. SILVER TECHNICALANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we cansee that silver bounced on the major trendline and pulled back into the swinglow around the 78.00 level. That’s where the sellers stepped in with a definedrisk above the level to position for a drop into the next major trendline aroundthe 53.00 handle. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increasethe bullish bets into the 96.35 level next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we havean upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the pullback extendsfurther, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined riskbelow it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, willlook for a break to increase the bearish bets into the monthly lows.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave a minor support zone around the 73.00 handle. The buyers are stepping inaround these levels with a defined risk below the support to keep targeting newhighs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase thebearish bets into the trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the US PCE price index and the latest US Jobless Claimsfigures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US CPI report and theUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. As a reminder, we have alsothe US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad tomorrow which is going to be moreimportant than the economic data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.