FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWThe S&P 500 surged intonew highs today and basically erased all the March losses after Trump announcedon Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US andIran negotiate a lasting peace deal. The discussions will begin on Friday inIslamabad and may be extended if both parties agree. Given the de-escalation,the risk sentiment in the markets turned around quickly and risk assets gotheavily bid. As you would expect, traders went back to price in rate cuts forthe Fed with now 14 bps of easing expected by year-end compared to basicallyzero before the ceasefire announcement. There’s still a risk thatthe war could restart any time as the US and Iran haven’t officially ended thehostilities. Nonetheless, the bias has now turned bullish for the S&P 500 givenIran’s acceptance of the ceasefire despite being against it for a long time.This will likely keep expectations positive for the negotiations.It goes without saying thatif the negotiations fail and the conflict resumes, the S&P 500 will quicklyerase all the gains and likely extend the losses into new lows.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOnthe daily chart, we can see thatthe S&P 500 broke above the downwardtrendline and surged into new highs after Trump announced the ceasefire. If weget a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 6,765 support witha defined risk below it to keep pushing into a new all-time high. The sellers,on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the support topile back in and target a drop into the broken trendline.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOnthe 4 hour chart, we have anupward trendline now defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback intothe trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk belowit to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will lookfor a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we cansee the price is currently trading above the upper bound of the average daily range for today. In such instances, wecan generally see some consolidation or a pullback before the next move.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC meeting minutes. Tomorrow, we get the US PCE priceindex and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the weekwith the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentimentsurvey. As a reminder, we have also the US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad onFriday. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.