Prior was +2.5% y/yCPI 0.9% m/m vs +0.9% expectedPrior +0.3% m/mNon-seasonally adjusted, unrounded ___% vs +0.47% priorCore CPI 2.6% vs 2.7% y/y expectedPrior core 2.5%Core CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.9% expectedPrior core +0.2%Real weekly earnings -0.9% vs +0.1% priorCPI Supercore M/M ___% vs +0.350% priorCPI Supercore Y/Y ___% vs 2.746% priorConsumer price inflation has been on a gradual but uneven path lower since peaking above 9% in mid-2022. The Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign — which brought the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50% — succeeded in pulling headline CPI back below 3% by late 2024, but the final stretch toward the 2% target has proven stubborn, particularly in services.Shelter costs, which make up roughly a third of the CPI basket, have been the single largest contributor to above-target inflation. Although private-sector rent measures have been cooling for over a year, the BLS methodology captures lease renewals with a significant lag, meaning the official data has been slow to reflect what landlords and tenants are seeing in real time. Most economists expect shelter disinflation to continue feeding through over the coming months, but the pace has repeatedly disappointed.Beyond housing, services inflation more broadly has remained sticky. Categories like auto insurance, medical care, and dining out have proven resistant to monetary policy, driven by labor costs and sector-specific supply dynamics rather than broad demand pressures.The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the target range to 5.00-5.25%, and markets are pricing in further easing this year. But policymakers have emphasized data dependence, and any upside surprise in today's report could push back expectations for the next move. The Iran conflict adds a wildcard — energy price shocks have historically complicated the Fed's task by lifting headline inflation while simultaneously threatening growth. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.