In-depth Gold Analysis, April 9, 2026Gold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDFR_GoldGuideIn-depth Gold Analysis, April 9, 2026 As of press time, the real-time gold price is approximately $4715 per ounce, currently testing the effectiveness of the $4700 support level. Gold prices have once again experienced rollercoaster-like volatility over the past 24 hours. As shown in the chart (2-hour chart): Is the current gold price movement a false breakout followed by a sharp drop, or a pullback followed by a potential rebound? My judgment leans towards "a pullback to accumulate momentum, with the potential for further gains," but $4700 is a key support level that the bulls must hold. "A Fragile Ceasefire Agreement" The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, contingent on Iran "fully, immediately, and safely" opening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran confirmed it will hold negotiations with the US in Islamabad on April 10 and released 10 ceasefire clauses. Three risk points to watch: 1. Israel does not accept the agreement, and the war in Lebanon reignites. Israel subsequently intensified its attacks on Lebanon, with airstrikes killing at least 112 people and injuring 837. 2. Iran's Revolutionary Guard warned of a "severe response" if Israel did not cease its aggression against Lebanon. 2. Iran's position is inconsistent, and the prospects for negotiations remain unclear. Iran's Supreme National Security Council declared "complete distrust" of the United States. Iran's ten demands include the withdrawal of US troops, the lifting of all sanctions, and the payment of compensation—conditions the US is unlikely to fully accept. Trump also stated, "If negotiations do not go well, the United States can easily resume military operations." 3. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed. Although Iran announced "the resumption of safe navigation within two weeks," specific details remain uncertain—Iran and Oman may charge fees to transit vessels. The actual resumption situation remains to be seen. In conclusion: A ceasefire is a fait accompli, but the geopolitical risk premium will not disappear. This is merely a return from "extreme panic" to "normal tension." The Federal Reserve: The ceasefire agreement eliminated the worst-case economic scenario (severe stagflation), but also made it more difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. High interest rates are limiting gold price increases, but inflation expectations themselves are supporting gold prices—caught between these two forces, volatility is inevitable. Technical Analysis: 4700 is a key price level. Resistance: 4750-4760 is the first hurdle; a break above this level could lead to further gains towards 4780-4800. 4800 is the recent high area, and the 4-hour chart shows strong selling pressure at this level. Support: 4700 is a psychological level and the starting point of yesterday's rebound during the US trading session. If it breaks below 4700, the next support level is 4678 (yesterday's low), followed by 4650-4630. Overall Assessment: 4700 is a key short-term price level. Holding this price level indicates a successful pullback and consolidation, and a potential retest of 4800 is possible; a break below this level would exacerbate the pullback, potentially leading to a drop to 4650 or even 4600. Trading Strategy: Core Assessment: The general consensus is that 4700 will hold, making buying on dips the primary strategy. However, if 4700 is decisively broken, long positions should be closed, and a wait-and-see approach adopted. Entry Point: Buy in batches within the 4700-4715 range. Stop-Loss Setting: Close positions if the price breaks below 4680 (leaving a buffer at 4700). Target Price: First target 4750-4760, second target 4780-4800. My Analysis: A ceasefire has become a reality, but geopolitical risk premiums will not disappear; the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates, but inflation itself supports gold prices. The bulls and bears are in a delicate balance around 4700. Your task is to be on the right side when this balance is broken. Market conditions change rapidly, but the rhythm remains constant. If you don't want to lose your way in the dramatic market fluctuations, feel free to follow my updates. I will be closely monitoring the market for you.