EURUSD: Retail is 67% SHORTEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEdgeTradingJourneyI’m currently watching EURUSD in a very interesting phase, where the market is approaching a key decision area after a strong bearish move. After breaking out of the descending channel, price reacted sharply from a macro demand zone around 1.1350–1.1450, showing the first signs of buyer interest. However, what we’re seeing right now is not a confirmed reversal, but rather a technical pullback within a still fragile structure. Price is now moving into a very important confluence zone between 1.1550 and 1.1600. In this area, we have multiple technical factors aligning: an H1 fair value gap, previous structure acting as resistance, and a potential retest of the broken trendline. From a sentiment perspective, the data is clear: around 67% of retail traders are currently short. This is a key element in my analysis, as the market often tends to move against the majority. This suggests we could see further upside in the short term, mainly to squeeze these short positions before any meaningful directional move. Looking at the COT report, the picture is quite different. On the euro futures side, non-commercial positioning is basically flat, which signals a lack of strong directional conviction. On the other hand, the US dollar still shows a relatively stronger positioning bias. This divergence between retail sentiment and institutional positioning leads me to a very specific conclusion: the market is not ready for a sustained bullish move, but rather in a distribution phase where price could push higher before moving lower. Seasonality also supports this idea. April tends to be slightly bullish for EURUSD, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term upside move, but not necessarily a trend reversal. I want to see a clean reaction on lower timeframes, such as H1 or M15, with a clear shift in structure confirming sellers stepping in. Only then I’ll consider entering short, targeting lower inefficiencies and eventually the macro demand zone again.