Short-term ZAR outlookUS Dollar/South African RandFX:USDZARGoose96The USDZAR pair fell out of the rising wedge pattern off the back of renewed risk-on sentiment following the US-Iran cease fire announcement. This allowed the rand to claw its way back below the 200-day MA (currently at 17.00) and onto the 50-day MA (16.41). The rand’s momentum is stalling between the 50% Fibo rate of 16.44 and the 61.8% Fibo rate of 16.25. The 1h and 4h candles are also validating the rand’s loss of momentum with the RSI playing in the oversold zone for these time frames coupled with bullish divergence on the 1h. Depending on how investor risk sentiment unfolds, I expect the pair to climb and re-test the resistance on 16.65 with a potential move higher towards 17.00. War and risk-off sentiment aside, there are however still a few factors that are supporting the rand which could limit its depreciation. Any spark towards risk-on sentiment allows the rand to make a rapid recovery as investors get herded back into the SA bond market, like we saw earlier this week. I will post a more detailed macro idea on the weekly timeframe for the pair later today.