Iran-US Ceasefire: Pakistan’s Big Diplomatic Moment Faces Reality Check

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On 8 April, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced that US President Donald Trump had decided to send a negotiating team to Pakistan for talks with Iran, which would be held on 11 June. The delegation would be led by Vice President JD Vance, and would include Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.It is expected that the Speaker of Iran’s National Assembly, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, would lead his country’s team. Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi would also be part of Iran’s delegation. If these talks go ahead, they will further burnish Pakistan’s successful efforts to facilitate the US and Iran in reaching ceasefire, on the morning of 8 August. Behind the Ceasefire, the Real Iran-US Conflict Remains UnresolvedCeasefire or Not?And yet, an element of doubt has come in about the Islamabad talks because of differing interpretations of the ceasefire.Israel has agreed to stop bombing Iran, but has carried out major strikes in Lebanon after the ceasefire came into effect. With the support of the US, it claims that Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire. Iran insists that it does and its Revolutionary Guards have closed off the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) after opening it brief period. Pakistan has agreed with Iran’s interpretation of the ceasefire but, without Trump’s pressure, Israel’s bombing of Lebanon will not cease.If the bombing of Lebanon does not stop, Iran will lose face for opening the SoH, meaning it's unlikely to do so. In this situation, with the SoH closed and Israel continuing to bomb Lebanon, Pakistan may have to undertake another difficult round of mediation for the Islamabad meeting.Trump warned late night on 8 May that the US armed forces were ready to resume action till such time as the “real agreement reached is fully complied with”. He threatened that in the unlikely event it was not then the “shooting will start again”. He has laid down two basic conditions. These are no nuclear weapons and SoH be open to safe passage. The first condition will not stop the initiation of the talks, but the second, if it is made a precondition to the talks, will do so.Trump’s statement makes it essential for active Pakistani involvement again to break the impasse.'A Whole Civilisation Will Die Tonight': Trump Issues New Ultimatum To IranMilking the Mediation CowMeanwhile, Pakistan has been hailed by large sections of the international community for its success in facilitating the ceasefire. Iran’s closure of SoH made the Iran war develop regional and global dimensions. The choke on 20 percent of global energy was crippling the global economy. Hence, the ceasefire and the hope that energy supplies would gradually be restored to normal, brought in an enormous sense of relief worldwide. Viewed through this lens, the international community’s interest in ending the war was not to do with ceasing the damage being inflicted on Iran but to end the war’s consequences on world economy.Of the three belligerents—the US, Israel and Iran—only Iran has publicly thanked Pakistan for its efforts in facilitating the ceasefire.Aragchi stated, “On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation to my dear brothers, the Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif, and Field Marshal (Asim) Munir, for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region”. This was high praise indeed. It is true that the Pakistani leadership, which is eager for an end to the war so that the SoH could be reopened, had worked with the US, Iran and the Gulf states to bring about the ceasefire. In this effort, they joined Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in an apparent bid to build an Islamic coalition for their efforts.Pakistan does not have diplomatic ties with Israel, so there was no way it could have intervened with the latter's leaders. Therefore, it did so, and quite energetically, with the POTUS and other members of the Trump administration.This was acknowledged by Trump, who, while announcing the ceasefire, wrote on Truth Social: “Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran…I agree to suspend…”.Pak Army Chief Asim Munir Promoted to Field Marshal: What Does This Mean? The American Push and PullWhat is significant is that unlike Iran, no US leader has actually thanked, let alone heap praise upon Pakistan, for its efforts in facilitating the ceasefire. It was, therefore, rather unctuous of Sharif to thank Trump for the ceasefire. But then, Sharif and Munir have always massaged Trump’s ego. They particularly did so when they thanked him for his mediation to bring about a cessation of hostilities in May last year during Operation Sindoor. Pakistan also nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. This was music to Trump's ears because he has repeatedly referred to his so-called role in bringing about Operation Sindoor’s pause last year. There is little doubt that Munir’s profile in Pakistan and abroad will rise further. This will give him another boost to put former Prime Minister Imran Khan further down.Operation Sindoor Debate: Claims, Counterclaims, and Unanswered QuestionsThe international community was on edge two days ago in fear of the Iran war escalating, and its disastrous consequences worldwide. These fears shall perpetuate—on account of the differences between the two sides regarding the interpretation of the ceasefire—though to a lesser degree, with the trust that Pakistan will diffuse the situation once again.(The writer is a former Secretary [West], Ministry of External Affairs. He can be reached @VivekKatju. This is an opinion piece, and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)