Fed's Williams: Iran war will drive up headline inflation

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NY Fed Pres. and voting member John Williams is speaking and says: Iran war impact will drive up headline inflationthings that inflation from Iran war will go directly into headline.Inflation given energy. Inflation issue should be around 2.75%.it is very focused on underlying inflation.Story on core inflation hasn't changed very much.Hasn't change story much on core inflation despite war.Tariffs remain a big part of the inflation story.Monetary policy as well positioned to wait and see.Monetary policy exactly where it needs to be, can be changed as needed.Expects 2% to 2.5% GDP this year with stable unemployment rate.,Labor market situation is pretty complicatedLabor market is low higher, low fire.Expects underlying inflation to moderate later this yearSays that the US has some of the best productivity from around the world. Tech is making a big differenceAs long as the economy is a growing waves things that consumer spending will continue.US economy is remarkably resilient.Compensation is growing at a rate that is consistent with productivity growth, not pressuring inflation. Businesses have been adapting to more uncertain that they see in the economy.Sees no issue of continuity at the Federal Reserve. He is focused on the work of the Fed.Haven't spoken with Fed chair nominee Warsh lately.Says that when people come into to the Fed, they understand the importance of the mission. The comments lean neutral overall, with a clear “wait-and-see” bias. While he acknowledges that the Iran conflict will push headline inflation higher through energy prices and that tariffs remain an inflation risk, he emphasizes that core inflation trends have not materially changed and are expected to moderate later this year. He highlights a resilient U.S. economy, steady consumer spending, solid productivity gains, and wage growth that is not fueling inflation—factors that reduce urgency for tighter policy. At the same time, he stresses that monetary policy is appropriately positioned and flexible, reinforcing a patient stance rather than signaling imminent easing or tightening. As a permanent voting member of the FOMC, his balanced but slightly dovish tone suggests comfort with current policy settings while monitoring inflation developments closely.US stocks remain lower with the Dow futures the point -150 points, S&P futures and point -30 points and NASDAQ index implying -163 points.US yields are modestly lower in the front end with the two-year down -0.4 basis points while the 10 year is unchanged. The U.S. Treasury will auction off 3 year notes at 1 PM ET today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.