The Kentucky Oaks TDN Top 10 For April 10: There’s A New Leader In The Clubhouse

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The prep season for the GI Kentucky Oaks came to a conclusion last week and the field looks more or less set. It should be a quality, competitive race with no clear standout. The big story last week was the win in the GI Ashland Stakes by Percy's Bar (Upstart). It was a powerful, eye-opening performance, one that was good that she has moved up in this poll from the 10th spot to the top spot.So, here goes, your latest and last Top 10 for the Kentucky Oaks:1) PERCY'S BAR (Upstart–Honestly Deb, by Super Saver) O-Hat Creek Racing; B-Brereton C. Jones (Ky); T-Ben Colebrook. Sales History: $52,000 yrl '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-2-1, $1,015,121. 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Last Start: First in Apr. 3 GI Central Bank Ashland. Kentucky Oaks Points: 114.There was never any doubt that this $52,000 yearling purchase had talent. But where had she been all year and would she possibly be ready for her assignment in the GI Central Bank Ashland Stakes after a five-month layoff? The latter question was answered, and answered emphatically, as Percy's Bar rolled to an impressive 2 1/4-length win over the heavily favored Zany. Yes, under Luan Machado, she got a perfect, ground-saving trip, but that doesn't diminish the fact that she was a dominant winner. A five-length winner last year of the Debutante Stakes at Churchill, she shouldn't have any problems handling the track come Oaks Day. She checks a lot of boxes.2) MEANING (Gun Runner–Figure of Speech, by Into Mischief) O-Bridlewood Farm & Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; B-Stonehaven Steadings (KY); T-Michael McCarthy. Sales history: $440,000 yrl '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $307,000. Last Start: First in Apr. 4 GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 126.Meaning was the other big winner over a weekend in which she captured the GII Santa Anita Oaks. She may not have faced the toughest field, and her assignment got easier when second-choice Forced Entry (Charlatan) was pulled up shortly after the start, but she exited the race leaving little doubt that she is the best 3-year-old filly based in Southern California. She also overcame the skepticism that the only reason she won the Las Virgenes Stakes was because she got a perfect trip. The Santa Anita Oaks hasn't been a productive prep for the Kentucky Oaks for a while. You have to go all the way back to Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy) in 2007 to find the last winner of the race to come back to win the Kentucky Oaks. The last horse to come out of the race and to go on to win at Churchill was Abel Tasman (Quality Road). She finished second in the 2017 Santa Anita Oaks.3) ZANY (American Pharoah–Mo' Green, by Uncle Mo) O-Repole Stable; B-D.J. Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW/GISP, 4-3-1-0, $369,625. Last Start: Second in Apr. 3 GI Central Bank Ashland. Kentucky Oaks Points: 80.This will mark the first Oaks Top 10 poll of the year in which Zany does not hold down the top spot. She had to drop a few spots after getting beat on the square by Percy's Bar in the Ashland. As was the case in her win in the Suncoast Stakes, she acted like a filly who hasn't figured things out yet. She did change leads, but ducked in a bit in the stretch. It's too early to give up on her and there's every chance that Todd Pletcher can find a way to send an improved filly into the Oaks. But her Ashland performance was a setback.4) LIFE OF JOY (Gun Runner–Jordan's Leo, by Malibu Moon) O-Will Stroud, Andrew Farm, Mountmellick Farm & For the People Racing Stable LLC; B-Springhouse Farm (KY); T-Brad H Cox. Sales history: $375,000 yrl '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $420,620. Last Start: First in Mar. 21 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 122.Life of Joy has had a good prep season. After running a creditable second behind Zany in the Suncoast, she improved in her next prep, winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fair Grounds Oaks, which seems to always produce horses that fire in the Kentucky Oaks. Trainer Brad Cox used the same prep last year with Good Cheer (Medaglia d'Oro), and she went on to win the Kentucky Oaks comfortably. The great Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d'Oro) is another one who pulled off the Fair Grounds Oaks-Kentucky Oaks daily double. This looks like a horse who is thriving and one who will be dangerous come May 1 at Churchill Downs.Meaning | Benoit Photo5) COUNTING STARS (Honor A.P.–Paynterbynumbers, by Paynter) O-West Point Thoroughbreds; B-HRH Prince Sultan Bin Mishal Al Saud (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $13,000 yrl '24 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-0, $972,606. Last Start: First in Mar. 27 GII Fantasy Stakes. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.This will be the first-ever Kentucky Oaks mount for underrated jockey Francisco Arrieta. He's having another big meet at Oaklawn, where, through Wednesday, he was third in the standings with 48 winners. Amazing that this filly originally sold for $13,000 at the 2024 Keeneland September sale before selling for $150,000 at OBS. She was purchased at OBS by West Point Thoroughbreds for what was obviously a bargain price. Coming off a 5 1/2-length win in the GII Fantasy Stakes, she's one of many in what will be a wide-open Oaks that will have a serious chance.6) PROM QUEEN (Quality Road–Miss Bling Bling, by Tapit) O-Gary and Mary West; B-Gary & Mary West Stables. Inc. (Ky); T-Brad H Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $206,980. 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard.' Last Start: First in Mar. 28 GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.Another Brad Cox-trainee who can easily win this. The Cox-Javier Castellano pairing is an interesting one. He's not necessarily one of Cox's go-to riders, but when they team up, good things happen. They've gone 4-for-6 this year and are 48-for-193 overall, for a 25-percent win rate. Prom Queen passed a big test when winning the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, not easy to do when you're coming off a maiden win.7) EXPLORA (Blame–Collections Choice, by Bernardini) O-Michael Pegram, Karl Watson & Paul Weitman; B-Mesingw Farm (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $22,000 yrl '24 KEESEP; $350,000 2yo '25 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 7-4-3-0, $1,053,000. 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard.' Last Start: First in Mar. 1 GIII Honeybee Stakes. Kentucky Oaks Points: 95.Bob Baffert has a tough job on his hands. In Explora, he has a talented filly, one who has never run worse than first or second. But she missed a key prep, the Fantasy, after spiking a temperature. Baffert wasted little time getting her back on the work tab, and it was an encouraging sign when she worked four furlongs in 48.00 on Monday at Santa Anita. Still, she will go into the Oaks off a two-month layoff. Will she be at her best in the Oaks? Knowing Baffert, the answer is probably yes.8) BELLA BALLERINA (Street Sense–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P Walsh. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-1-0, $561,525. 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard.' Last Start: Second in Mar. 21 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 110.Which Bella Ballerina will show up in the Oaks, the one who won her first three career starts or the one who was soundly beaten by Life of Joy in the Fair Grounds Oaks? Even during her winning streak, she was never blowing away her opponents, so it will likely take a career-best effort for her to win the Oaks. She has shipped to Keeneland, where she breezed four furlongs in :48.20 last Saturday.9) ALWAYS A RUNNER (Gun Runner–Always Carina, by Malibu Moon) O-Douglas Scharbauer and Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (Goncalo B. Torrealba); B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales History: $1,050,000 yrl '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $129,200. 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. Last Start: First in Apr. 4 GIII Gazelle. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.This $1,050,000 Keeneland September purchase enters the list after posting a mild upset in the GIII Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct in what was just her second career start. She did so after breaking her maiden at Tampa Bay Downs in a race that got a ridiculously-slow Beyer number of 59. Yes, she's a well-bred expensive horse trained by Chad Brown, but she's got to show a lot more. The Gazelle was hardly loaded.10) BOTTLE OF ROUGE (Vino Rosso-Blues Corner, by Bluegrass Cat) O-Natalie J Baffert; B-Kathie Maybee (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $60,000 wnlg '23 KEENOV; $100,000 yrl '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $577,000. Last Start: First in Mar. 14 Virginia Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 57.50.Will she get in? Owned by Jill Baffert and trained by her husband, Bottle of Rouge is currently 16th on the points list for the Oaks. Only 14 can run. She will need two defections to get in, which is, of course, entirely possible. She may not be a star, but she did manage to win the Sunland Park Oaks and the Virginia Oaks this year and won a Grade I last year in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes. She deserves to be in the field.The post The Kentucky Oaks TDN Top 10 For April 10: There’s A New Leader In The Clubhouse appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.