USDCHF: Smart Money Still Long USD — Pullback Before Expansion?USD/CHFOANDA:USDCHFEdgeTradingJourneyI maintain a bullish bias on USDCHF. The Dollar Index remains supported, with speculative positioning still net long, while the Swiss franc shows a strong and increasing net short positioning from non-commercials. This divergence confirms that, from a macro perspective, the market is still pricing CHF weakness and USD strength, structurally favoring further upside on the pair. Retail sentiment is slightly skewed to the long side (~58%), which is not a strong contrarian signal but suggests that part of the move has already been priced in. For this reason, I’m avoiding aggressive entries at current levels and prefer a more patient approach. April seasonality is not particularly supportive, with historical data showing a mixed profile and a slight bearish bias. While not enough to invalidate the bullish view, it reduces the probability of a clean, linear rally and supports the idea of a short-term consolidation or pullback before continuation. From a technical perspective, price has entered a key supply zone between 0.7960 and 0.8040, with a higher resistance area around 0.8080–0.8120. The structure remains bullish, but current positioning is not efficient for new long entries. I see room for a pullback toward 0.7940–0.7920 (FVG/inefficiency area), and potentially deeper into the 0.7870–0.7840 demand zone, where the market could reload liquidity before the next leg higher. In summary, I remain bullish on USDCHF with continuation targets at 0.8040 and 0.81+, but operationally I prefer buying weakness rather than chasing breakouts. The key level that keeps the structure intact is 0.7840: as long as price holds above it, I continue to view the market as being in an accumulation phase for further upside.