#202615 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxMicro-DAX FuturesEUREX:FDXS1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Max bearish. If all war parties report a peace-treaty, I am wrong but so be it. I do think that also the next talks will fail, almost no traffic through the straight and Oil prices will go ballistic over the next 2 weeks. Bears argue we re-tested the breakout price area around 24400 and on the weekly tf they argue that we had W1 and this is W2, which is not the strongest argument. Bulls front-run if to the max and then some. They know above 24500 more bears will cover and we could get a third leg up, which could very well bring a new ath, which is insanity but it’s what markets do more often than anyone can imagine. If talks fail, I doubt we make new lows until oil makes another 20% from here (wti at 96.57). current market cycle: monthly tf bull trend in jeopardy - bulls need to keep the trend line alive. daily close below 22000 is confirmation of the end and we will be in a bear trend and also in most likely a bigger trading range from the 2020 lows to 25k ath. key levels for next week: 22000 - 24500 bull case: Bulls got more than most dreamed of. 3 straight week of gains into the biggest Oil crisis the world has ever seen. They want more because the pain trade is likely still up. A daily close above 24500 would most likely make more bears cover and it would be a close above the breakout price area and also above the weekly 20ema. Many many reasons why they want above and also why bears rejected it so far. From a macro perspective everyone and their dog knows this rally is moronic and with Oil keeping at the highs time runs against the bulls. Only real bullishness will come from a solid agreement from all war parties and 30-50+ daily straight crossings. Invalidation is below 23500 bear case: My two-legged (abc) correction was perfectly drawn but it was not was I was hoping for. Bears are in do or die mode here below the breakout area. They can still argue it’s a normal two-legged pullback on the weekly chart and it was W2 but that argument is weak at best as of now. They have all the reasons on their side to turn again. Talks went nowhere, Oil will likely close above 100$ again tomorrow and markets have all the reason to sell-off again. That does not mean they will though. The 50% retracement is around 23850 which will be my first target on futures open. Below that bears have to close the gap to 23450 and if they can manage that, they have a good chance of going lower again. How low? I highly doubt we make new lows unless Oil goes really ballistic and above 120+. So selling above 24000 and buying 23000 will be my main focus until Oil rips or US invades. Invalidation is above 23600 short term: 3 weeks of nasty squeezing, can they get a 4th? I highly doubt that after the failed talks. I would not be surprised if we would see an escalation “to show force” and something something “art of the deal”. Full bear mode for me if I see weakness. medium-long term - update 2026-04-04: The headlines will dictate the direction. My base case is the world is completely fucked with Oil this high and 20+% Oil production not being delivered. We could see dax 20000 over the next days/weeks and ultimately even a print below 19000. If we get there, buy with both hands and then some more. I expect big bulls beginning to scale in close to 20000 and they would add on the way lower.