#202615 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqMicro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index FuturesCME_MINI:MNQ1!priceactiontdsGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Same as dax. I expect the talks to fail and markets to go into risk-off mode again. Yes, same excrement as last week and again, yes - I can be wrong about it again. Have a stop in place and learn to live with it. This move is beyond overdone and the 50% retracement is at 24180. I expect at least a quick dip to 25000. Last thing I expect is a new ath and honestly, shorts here with stop 27k are as good as they come. current market cycle: trading range on the monthly chart key levels for next week: 23000 - 25700 bull case: 10% in 2 weeks. What more could you ask for? This is overdone. Bulls front-ran the peace talks while the reality is, nothing, absolutely nothing changed compared to two weeks ago. Maybe less bombing. Oil is not flowing as it should be, bulls could squeeze more but it’s so beyond stupid that I can not come up with any reason why this should continue. Yes it can, yes I can be wrong again. Buying for a new ath while Oil is above 90$ is the same as buying Tesla above 100 p/e. Cool if you made money but most of the time when you take these trades you will go “what the duck was I thinking” afterwards. Invalidation is below 25900 bear case: Won’t repeat everything I wrote for dax. Bears have the news and should make this a nasty reversal and going for the lows again. I doubt we will make new ones though. First targets are 24900, body gap 24370 and then 24000. Even if bulls would squeeze it further, I would hold onto shorts until Oil drops meaningfully below 80 again. Invalidation is above 25800 short term: Full bear mode. Should see a giant reversal from the 10% short squeeze. No longs. medium-long term - Update from 2026-04-05: Bear trend target 20000 if the war continues. Lowest I can see it going, if we get a deep recession, is 18000 - 19000. W3 could take us to 20000-21000 next. Big bois will begin scaling in around 20000, you can bet the house on it but you shouldn’t. If things turn real bad, this could go on for many months, maybe until US mid-terms.