Pakistan’s role as a mediator in the US-Israel-Iran war has invited some scrutiny in recent days, despite its longstanding ties with regional powers in the Gulf and diplomatic relations with both the United States and China.Reuters called the country an “international outcast”, and the BBC described it as an “unlikely mediator”. The Diplomat noted its “proactive strategic autonomy” approach while mentioning its dire economic situation and fraught ties with neighbours, calling the latest move “punching above its weight in diplomacy.”In India, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had referred to Pakistan as a “dalal” (broker) nation a few days ago, as the opposition Congress party argued that its participation exposed India’s “diplomatic weakness” under the BJP government. Gulf nations, meanwhile, have welcomed the ceasefire.In China, international relations experts and strategic affairs analysts have discussed several factors explaining Pakistan’s eagerness to take on the role of key mediator. Concurrently, state media and news websites linked to the Chinese Communist Party have also applauded Pakistan.According to Chinese experts, among the drivers of Pakistan’s mediation are:*Domestic political compulsions, with protests that left at least 20 people dead shortly after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and external diplomatic pressure from the Gulf and the US.*Islamabad’s dilemma over getting drawn into the war or remaining uninvolved.Story continues below this ad*Pakistan’s energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, with over 85% of its crude oil being imported from countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates through the strait. Petrol and diesel prices have been hiked by around 40 to 55% domestically.*The large number of Pakistanis working in the Gulf countries (estimated at around 5.5 million) and the remittances they send, which comprise a large source of foreign exchange earnings.It is pertinent to note that Pakistan’s Field Marshall Asim Munir was in an “all-night contact” with US Vice President JD Vance earlier this week, after US President Donald Trump’s statement — “a whole civilisation will die tonight.”Explained | How Pakistan-Afghanistan ‘open war’ follows a long history of differences3 immediate risks for PakistanStory continues below this adIn an interview with Chinese media, Professor Liu Zongyi, director of the Centre for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS), and one of China’s foremost voices on South Asia, elaborated on Pakistan’s motivations.Against the backdrop of the US military strikes on targets within Iran, which borders Pakistan, “the spill-over risks of this conflict pose multiple direct threats to Pakistan,” he said.Professor Liu noted three immediate risks in the event of an escalation. First is the ongoing war between Pakistan and Afghanistan over their shared border.Admitting that China’s ongoing efforts for mediation and the meeting with both sides’ representatives in Xinjiang have not led to success, he cited “Afghan Taliban sheltering insurgents and terrorist outfits such as Pakistani Taliban and East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), respectively” for the lack of a breakthrough.Story continues below this adSecondly, if the war spills over further, the US and Saudi Arabia may request to “pass through” Pakistan to intervene in Iran. Pakistan and Iran share a long border, and Pakistan’s Balochistan province borders Iran’s south-eastern Sistan-Baluchistan province.Explained | Iran, Pakistan, and the Baloch militancyBoth regions have cultural commonalities and a persistent insurgency problem. If insurgent groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) take advantage of the ongoing wars and expand their influence, Pakistan will face a major threat to its security and territorial integrity.Third, Pakistan has a large Shia population, and if Pakistan intervenes in a war against the Shia-majority Iran owing to its deep ties to the US, the risks of internal division will arise.Professor Liu also noted the significance of the oil factor. An energy crisis will worsen Pakistan’s ongoing economic stagnation and will heighten pressure on Pakistan from both Saudi Arabia and the United States. Pakistan is hoping to avoid offending any of the parties in the conflict because all of them cater to its different interests, thus pushing it towards mediation.Story continues below this adAnother aspect that has not received widespread attention is the Pak-Saudi Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA). Signed in September 2025, it stated that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both”. In China, strategic affairs experts believe the pact has put Pakistan in a catch-22 situation, amid Iran’s retaliatory attacks in the region.Pakistan’s advantages, and the Chinese state’s viewScholars in China also acknowledge several factors that could help Pakistan win the trust of both Iran and the US, and the support of several Gulf nations. It could emerge as the key “third party” in the ceasefire talks beginning Saturday (April 10) for two weeks.Some of these positives include Pakistan’s lack of diplomatic relations with Israel, close ties with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and the respect it commands as the only Islamic nation possessing nuclear weapons. At the same time, scholars highlight the external pressures it faces from the US and Saudi Arabia.Coming to the state perspective, China has officially supported Pakistan’s mediation bid. The two countries jointly formulated a five-point peace plan days after the ceasefire, which sent a strong signal, given China’s limited direct involvement in the conflict so far. China was also reported to have played a role in the ceasefire that eventually materialised.Story continues below this adXinhua, the state news agency, published an article on Thursday titled “Why Pakistan has become go-to mediator in Middle East conflict.” It mentioned push factors such as the shared border with Iran and Pakistan’s own economic and energy considerations.However, it also cited experts and regional officials who described Pakistan as being a “uniquely positioned mediator — one with ties to both sides, urgent stakes in de-escalation, and a history of shuttle diplomacy that has positioned it to defuse the regional standoff with global impact.”The report further noted an opportunity, too: “Beyond security and economics, successful mediation offers Pakistan a chance to rebrand itself globally. A successful deal, analysts believe, would strengthen its ties with Washington, Tehran and Arab Gulf states alike, while elevating its standing among South Asian nations.”Hemant Adlakha taught Chinese at the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. He is currently a Vice Chairperson and an Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS), Delhi.