Is the Tech Bull Run Exhausted? My Counter-Trend Plan for NAS100US Tech 100 IndexFUSIONMARKETS:NAS100fxtraderanthonyThe NASDAQ macro narrative heading into this week is heavily influenced by a cooling inflation environment, with recent CPI data coming in softer than expected at 2.4% 🏦. While this has bolstered hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2026, the underlying sentiment remains fragile due to geopolitical friction in the Middle East and crude oil hovering near the $100 mark. Interestingly, market chatter suggests that while the technical recovery from the 23,000 lows has been sharp, retail consensus is increasingly leaning toward a "blow-off top" narrative. Many participants are eyeing the psychological 25,000–25,200 zone as a place to fade the move, which often creates the exact pool of liquidity that institutional "smart money" seeks to exploit before a genuine reversal occurs 📉. We are seeing a classic Wyckoffian "Markup" phase on the daily chart, but the vertical nature of the recent rally suggests we are reaching an overextended state 📈. The price has surged into a significant resistance cluster characterized by previous breakdown points and a high-volume node. Community sentiment across various forums is vocally calling for a short, which tells me the "crowded trade" is currently the counter-trend play. In Dow Theory terms, we haven't seen a lower high or lower low yet, meaning the primary trend remains bullishly impulsive. However, the thin liquidity visible in the upper distribution suggests that any failure to hold above the 25,000 handle could lead to a rapid "long squeeze" as late buyers are forced to exit 🧹. Key Zone: The primary area of interest is the 25,069–25,244 range. This aligns with a major Volume Profile ledge and sits just above the current VWAP deviation, marking a significant "Value" extreme in Auction Market Theory 📉. We are currently trading at the upper boundary of the multi-month range, and I am watching for a "run on liquidity" to sweep the stops of those early shorts I've seen discussed in social circles. A spike above the recent highs followed by a swift rejection back into the value area would confirm a "UTAD" (Upthrust After Distribution) type of manipulation. I am specifically looking for the market to trap one last wave of "breakout buyers" before the lack of fresh bid depth forces a pullback toward the 24,474 magnet, where the volume profile shows a much denser concentration of historical trade 💰. My Trade Plan 🎯 Bias: Short (Counter-Trend). I am exercising extreme patience here to avoid being the "liquidity" for a final spike. Entry Protocol: I am anticipating a "Stop Run" above 25,245, followed by a 15-minute candle close back inside the 25,070 Value Area. The trigger is a failure to hold the breakout, targeting the high-volume node at 24,053 for a full mean-reversion play.