PAUL POAST2026年4月14日By the time the war in Iran began on Feb. 28, the world was already fighting. The past two years brought more war — both within and between countries — than in any years since the end of World War II. A new normal of rising conflict had arrived.当伊朗战争于2月28日爆发时，世界早已硝烟四起。无论是国家内部还是国与国之间，过去两年间的战争数量都已超过第二次世界大战结束以来的任何时期。冲突升级的新常态已然降临。Now, as the war in Ukraine drags on and the American and Israeli war against Iran is paused under a fragile cease-fire, we are watching another unwelcome phenomenon return to the global stage: the world war. Two large conflicts on different continents have become theaters for strategic competition between major powers. Each war’s dynamics have had a direct impact on the other’s, and both have dragged ancillary states into the fray. And while the combined scale and intensity of the conflicts falls far short of the two devastating world wars fought last century, they have arisen from the same dangerous reflex: competing nations fully embracing military force as the first and primary means of exerting power.如今，乌克兰战事久拖不决，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争在脆弱的停火协议下暂时停歇。我们正目睹另一种不愿见到的现象重返世界舞台：世界大战。两场发生在不同大陆的重大冲突已成为大国战略博弈的角力场。每场战争的局势变化都直接影响着另一场，两者都已将众多相关国家卷入其中。尽管这些冲突的规模和强度总和远不及上世纪那两场毁灭性的世界大战，但它们都源自同一种危险的思维定式：竞争中的各国完全将军事力量视为行使权力的首要且主要手段。Russia and the United States went to war for different reasons. President Vladimir Putin of Russia sought to expand his territorial reach and regain land that — in his mind — belongs in the Russian sphere. The stated objectives for the United States in going to war against Iran varied, but President Trump has consistently said that Iran can’t be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon. (Israel, America’s partner in the war, shares that objective, but has political aims of its own, a reality that could scuttle the cease-fire altogether.) Still, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump believed success would be easy and that their goal justified virtually any level of violence — even if it broke the bounds of international law.俄罗斯和美国开战的理由各不相同。俄罗斯总统普京试图扩展领土控制范围，并夺回在他看来本应属于俄罗斯势力范围的土地。美国对伊朗开战的公开目标则有多个版本，但特朗普总统始终坚称绝不能允许伊朗获得核武器。（作为美国在这场战争中的盟友，以色列也持此目标，但另有其自身政治目的，这一现实可能导致停火协议彻底破裂。）尽管如此，普京和特朗普都曾相信胜利唾手可得，并认为其目标足以使任何程度的暴力行为——哪怕逾越国际法边界——正当化。In a few short weeks, the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran became expressions of the great power competition underway. In both theaters, Russia and the United States have backed each other’s adversaries. The United States continues to provide arms, intelligence and planning to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, and Russia was reported to be doing the same for Iran by providing targeting information and mapping on U.S. military positions and sending drones to Tehran. While the United States and Russia aren’t directly firing on each other, the powers have essentially loaded and pointed the guns being fired by others.短短数周内，乌克兰与伊朗的战事便演变成大国竞争的具象表现。在这两处战场，俄美两国互相支持对方的敌手。美国持续为乌克兰抗击俄罗斯提供武器、情报和战略规划，而有报道称俄罗斯亦通过提供打击目标信息与地图、向德黑兰输送无人机等方式对伊朗予以同等支持。尽管美俄并未直接交火，但这两个大国实质上已经在帮人装填弹药、校准炮口。Each war has affected the other. The shock to global oil prices induced by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become a financial windfall for Russia, both in higher prices for its own oil and through the easing of sanctions on that oil by a Trump administration desperate to lower global prices. As attention and resources are diverted to Iran, Russia has launched a spring offensive aimed at consolidating and expanding its territorial gains in Ukraine. Ukraine, meanwhile, has offered the expertise in drone defense it has acquired in its fight against Russia to the United States and the Arab nations being targeted by Iran.两场战争彼此影响。伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡引发的全球油价震荡成为俄罗斯的意外之财——既推高了本国原油价格，又让急于平抑油价的特朗普政府放松了对俄油的制裁。随着全球注意力与资源转向伊朗，俄罗斯发动春季攻势，意图巩固并扩大控制范围。与此同时，乌克兰将其在抗俄战争中积累的无人机防御经验分享给正遭伊朗袭击的美国及阿拉伯国家。Both conflicts have pulled in other countries. In Ukraine, Russia’s war effort has long been enabled by the economic and technical support of China, the direct manpower contributions of North Korea and drones from Iran. European allies have played an increasingly important role in helping arm Ukraine, even taking the lead in that effort over the past year. And while NATO countries have not answered Mr. Trump’s call to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open, last month NATO-run missile defense systems shot down Iranian missiles directed toward Turkey. Iranian missiles aimed at several Gulf states have dragged those nations into the fight, while Israel has attacked Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have launched missiles at Israel.两场冲突均已将其他国家卷入。在乌克兰战场，俄罗斯的军事行动长期依赖中国的经济与技术支援、朝鲜的直接人力输出及伊朗的无人机支援。欧洲盟友在武装乌克兰方面作用日益关键，过去一年甚至成为主导。尽管北约国家未响应特朗普关于协助维持霍尔木兹海峡畅通的呼吁，但上月北约部署的导弹防御系统击落了射向土耳其的伊朗导弹。伊朗针对数个海湾国家的导弹袭击将这些国家拖入战局，以色列则袭击了黎巴嫩真主党，而伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装亦向以色列发射导弹。The First and Second World Wars involved millions of soldiers from great powers directly fighting one another, resulting in millions of deaths. But not all world wars will look like those two cataclysmic conflicts. Indeed, those events were not even the first or second world wars. The Seven Years’ War of the mid-18th century and the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century were also global fights, comprising separate wars occurring on different continents involving major powers that were either directly fighting or coordinating between the conflicts.第一次与第二次世界大战曾导致大国数百万士兵直接厮杀，造成数千万人死亡。但并非所有世界大战都会呈现出那般毁灭性的形态。事实上，那两场战争甚至并非最早的“世界大战”。18世纪中期的七年战争与19世纪初的拿破仑战争同样具有全球性，它们由发生在不同大陆的多场独立战争构成，主要大国或直接参战，或在各战场间协同行动。The Seven Years’ War of 1756 to 1763 is instructive for understanding the meaning of world war as it’s playing out today. The war was primarily fought in Europe, with Britain and Prussia on one side and France and Austria on the other. With Britain and France in possession of global empires, the battles extended across multiple continents. This, too, was a time when countries were embracing the use of military force to assert their national power.1756至1763年的七年战争对理解当今世界战争形态具有启示意义。该战争主战场在欧洲，一方为英国与普鲁士，另一方为法国与奥地利。由于英法拥有全球性殖民帝国，战火遂蔓延至多个大洲。那同样是一个各国纷纷诉诸武力以彰显国威的时代。Some argue that the Cold War was a world war. It is certainly true that the notion that the Cold War was cold is a misnomer: It was a period of intense conflict touching many parts of the globe. But Cold War conflicts lacked the interconnectedness and simultaneity on display in Europe and the Middle East. And, importantly, the superpowers during this time exercised caution about using military force that constrained their actions, in no small part because of the nuclear arsenals they were amassing. Today, both Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump display a more cavalier approach to using the military to achieve their goals — and a greater indifference to the consequences, both economic and social.有人认为冷战亦是一场世界大战。冷战之“冷”的确具有误导性：那是一个战火波及全球多地的激烈对抗时期。但冷战时期的冲突缺乏当前欧洲与中东战事所呈现的联动性与同时性。更重要的是，当时的美苏超级大国对使用武力持审慎态度，这制约了其行动——这在很大程度上缘于双方不断积聚的核武库。而今，普京与特朗普在运用军事手段达成目标时显得更为轻率，对经济与社会后果也更为漠然。Why is it important to see the wars in Iran and Ukraine as part of a global event, rather than two conflicts unfolding in parallel?为何将伊朗与乌克兰的战争视作全球性事件的一部分至关重要，而非将其看作两场并行发展的冲突？Looking at how the wars are connected shows the necessity for our leaders to think globally in an emerging multipolar world where powers vie for control of regions or spheres of influence. A conflict in one region almost certainly will spill over into another. Resources allocated to one fight may mean fewer resources for another, undermining efforts to deter a threat or assist an ally in need. Failing to recognize the global span of security issues is exactly how states can stumble from a limited war of choice into a world war they did not intend.洞悉两场战争的关联性揭示了在一个新兴多极世界中各国领导人必须具备全球思维的必要性——各大国正在争夺地区或势力范围的主导权。一地的冲突几乎必然波及另一地。投入一场战争的资源往往意味着另一场战争所能获得的资源减少，从而削弱威慑或援助盟友的能力。若不能认清安全问题的全球性牵连，国家便可能从一场主动投入的有限战争跌入一场非其本意的世界大战。Last year was 80 years since the end of the Second World War. That conflict’s devastation remains unmatched, and we should hope that remains the case. Even if we never endure another global conflict of that scale, we are nevertheless once again witnessing a return to an era of a world war.去年是第二次世界大战结束80周年。那场战争的破坏力至今仍未被超越，我们理应祈愿那样的悲剧永不重演。即便不再经历那种规模的全球冲突，我们无疑还是在见证一个“世界大战时代”的回归。Paul Poast是芝加哥大学政治学副教授，也是芝加哥全球事务委员会的高级非常驻研究员。翻译：经雷点击差查看本文英文版。