PETER BAKER2026年4月14日上周，特朗普总统在弗吉尼亚州夏洛茨维尔。 Tierney L. Cross/The New York TimesPresident Trump’s erratic behavior and extreme comments in recent days and weeks have turbocharged the crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-plain-crazy debate that has followed him on the national political stage for a decade.特朗普总统近几天乃至近几周反复无常的行为和极端言论加剧了“他是装疯卖傻还是真疯了”的争论，这一争论十年来在国家政治舞台上与他如影随形。A series of disjointed, hard-to-follow and sometimes-profane statements capped by his “a whole civilization will die tonight” threat to wipe Iran off the map last week and his head-spinning attack on the “WEAK on Crime, and terrible for Foreign Policy” pope on Sunday night have left many with the impression of a deranged autocrat mad with power.上周他威胁要从地图上抹去伊朗，宣称“今晚，整个文明将消亡”；周日晚间他又对教宗发起令人眼花缭乱的攻击，称其“在犯罪问题上软弱，在外交政策上糟糕”，这一系列前言不搭后语、令人费解且时而粗俗的言论让外界觉得他是一个被权力冲昏头脑、歇斯底里的独裁者。The White House rejected such assessments, saying that Mr. Trump is sharp and keeping his opponents on edge. But the president’s eruptions have raised questions about America’s leadership in a time of war. While the country has had presidents whose capacity came under question before, most recently the octogenarian Joseph R. Biden Jr. as he aged demonstrably before the public’s eyes, never in modern times has the stability of a president been so publicly and forensically debated — and with such profound consequences.白宫驳斥了此类评价，称特朗普思维敏锐，让对手们紧张不安。但总统的激烈言论引发了人们对战争时期美国领导力的质疑。尽管美国历史上也曾有过能力受到质疑的总统（最近的例子是年逾八旬、在公众眼中明显衰老的约瑟夫·拜登），但在现代历史上，还从未有过一位总统的精神稳定性被如此公开、如此细致地反复审视——而且其潜在后果也如此深远。Democrats who have long challenged Mr. Trump’s psychological fitness have issued a fresh chorus of calls to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove the president from power for disability. But it is not just a concern voiced by partisans on the left, late-night comics or mental health professionals making long-distance diagnoses. It can be heard now among retired generals, diplomats and foreign officials. And most strikingly, it can be heard now on the political right among onetime allies of the president.长期以来一直质疑特朗普心理健康的民主党人再次呼吁援引第25修正案以总统失能为由将其免职。但这不仅仅是左翼党派人士、深夜脱口秀喜剧演员或进行远程诊断的心理健康专业人士的担忧。如今，在退休将领、外交官和外国官员中也能听到这种声音。最引人注目的是，如今在政治右翼阵营也能听到这种声音，来自那些一度是总统盟友的人。Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Georgia Republican who recently broke with Mr. Trump, advocated using the 25th Amendment, telling CNN that threatening to destroy Iran’s civilization was “not tough rhetoric, it’s insanity.” Candace Owens, the far-right podcaster, called him “a genocidal lunatic.” Alex Jones, the conspiracy theorist and founder of Infowars, said Mr. Trump “does babble and sounds like the brain’s not doing too hot.”最近与特朗普决裂的佐治亚州共和党前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林主张动用第25修正案，她告诉CNN，威胁摧毁伊朗文明“不是强硬言论，而是精神错乱”。极右翼播客主持人坎迪斯·欧文斯称他为“种族灭绝的疯子”。阴谋论者、Infowars创始人亚历克斯·琼斯表示，特朗普“确实在胡言乱语，听起来脑子不太正常”。2022年，特朗普在自家位于新泽西州贝德明斯特的高尔夫俱乐部，身边是曾是他最坚定支持者之一的前众议员玛乔丽·泰勒·格林和塔克·卡尔森。Some of the questions about Mr. Trump’s soundness come from people who once worked with him and have since become critics. Even before the civilization post, Ty Cobb, a White House lawyer in Mr. Trump’s first term, told the journalist Jim Acosta that the president is “a man who is clearly insane” and that his recent string of belligerent, middle-of-the-night social media posts “highlights the level of his insanity.” Stephanie Grisham, a former White House press secretary for Mr. Trump, wrote online last week that “he’s clearly not well.”一些对特朗普精神是否健全的质疑来自曾与他共事、后来成为批评者的人。甚至在那条“文明灭亡”的发帖之前，特朗普第一任期的白宫律师泰·科布就曾对记者吉姆·阿科斯塔表示，这位总统“显然是个疯子”，而他近期一连串充满敌意、在深夜发布的社交媒体帖子“凸显了他的疯狂程度”。特朗普的前白宫新闻秘书史蒂芬妮·格里沙姆上周也在网上写道：“他显然状态不对。”Mr. Trump fired back in a long, angry social media post that did not exactly radiate calm stability. “They have one thing in common, Low IQs,” he wrote of Ms. Owens, Mr. Jones, Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson. “They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too!” He threw the crazy charge back at them. “They’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some ‘free’ and cheap publicity.”特朗普在社交媒体上发了一篇气急败坏的长帖予以回击，完全看不出他的冷静和稳定。“他们有一个共同点，就是智商低。”他在谈到欧文斯、琼斯、梅根·凯利和塔克·卡尔森时写道。“他们都是蠢人，他们自己知道，家人知道，其他人同样知道！”他还把“疯子”的指控回敬给对方。“他们就是疯子、捣乱分子，为了换取‘免费’而廉价的曝光，什么话都说得出来。”The dissent on the right has not extended to Congress, where Republican lawmakers remain publicly loyal to the president, nor has it reached the cabinet, which would have to approve any invocation of the 25th Amendment, rendering that idea moot. But it reflects growing unease among Americans who in recent surveys have increasingly questioned the fitness of Mr. Trump, already the oldest president ever inaugurated, as he approaches his 80th birthday.右翼内部的分歧尚未蔓延到国会，在那里共和党议员在公开场合仍然对总统保持忠诚；也没有扩展到内阁层面，而内阁必须同意才能援引第25条修正案，因此这一想法几乎没有实际意义。但这反映出美国民众日益增长的不安。随着特朗普即将迎来80岁生日，在最近的调查中，越来越多的民众质疑特朗普的身体状况是否适合履职。A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February found that 61 percent of Americans think Mr. Trump has become more erratic with age and just 45 percent say he is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” down from 54 percent in 2023. Roughly half of Americans, 49 percent, deemed Mr. Trump too old to be president when asked in a YouGov poll in September, up from 34 percent in February 2024, while just 39 percent said he was not too old.路透社/益普索今年2月的一项民调显示，61%的美国人认为特朗普随着年龄增长变得更加反复无常，只有45%的人认为他“思维敏锐，能够应对挑战”，这一比例低于2023年的54%。去年9月，YouGov的一项民调显示，约一半美国人（49%）认为特朗普年纪太大不适合当总统，高于2024年2月的34%，而只有39%的人认为他还不算太老。Democrats have pressed the point in recent days. Mr. Trump is “an extremely sick person” (Senator Chuck Schumer of New York), “unhinged” and “out of control” (Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York) or, more bluntly, “batshit crazy” (Representative Ted Lieu of California). Representative Jamie Raskin of Maryland, wrote the White House physician requesting an evaluation, noting “signs consistent with dementia and cognitive decline” and “increasingly incoherent, volatile, profane, deranged, and threatening” tantrums.民主党人近日加大了这一论调的力度。特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”（纽约州参议员查克·舒默）、“精神失控”“无法控制”（纽约州众议员哈基姆·杰弗里斯），或者更直白地说，“疯得离谱”（加利福尼亚州众议员刘云平）。马里兰州众议员杰米·拉斯金则致信白宫医生，要求进行评估，并指出特朗普存在“与痴呆和认知能力下降相符的迹象”，以及“越来越语无伦次、情绪多变、言语粗俗、精神错乱和充满威胁”的脾气爆发。参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默称特朗普是“一个极其病态的人”。The president’s defenders pushed back. What critics call psychosis, they call strategy.总统的支持者则予以反驳。批评者看来是精神异常的行为被他们称之为策略。“Trump knows exactly what he is doing,” wrote Liz Peek, a columnist for the Hill and Fox News contributor. “Trump will continue to use maximalist (and sometimes outrageous) military and diplomatic pressure in his campaign to rid the Middle East of Iran’s near 50-year campaign of terror.”“特朗普完全知道自己在做什么，”《国会山报》专栏作家、福克斯新闻评论员莉兹·皮克写道。“在消除伊朗近50年来恐怖活动的行动中，特朗普将继续使用最大限度的（有时甚至是极端的）军事和外交压力。”Mr. Trump, who in his first term described himself as “a very stable genius” and has regularly boasted of passing cognitive tests meant to detect dementia, dismissed the criticism of his mental state when asked by a reporter last week.特朗普在第一个任期内曾自称“精神状态非常稳定的天才”，并经常吹嘘自己通过了用于检测痴呆症的认知测试。上周，当被记者问及外界对其精神状态的批评时，他不以为然。“I haven’t heard that,” he said. “But if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people like me because our country was being ripped off on trade, on everything, for many years until I came along. So if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people.”“我没听说过，”他说。“但如果是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人，因为在我出现之前，我们的国家在贸易、在所有事情上被占便宜了很多年。所以如果真是这样，那你们就需要更多像我这样的人。”Asked for elaboration, Davis Ingle, a White House spokesman, said in an email: “President Trump’s sharpness, unmatched energy, and historic accessibility stand in stark contrast to what we saw during the past four years.” He argued that Mr. Biden had declined physically and mentally in that time and that The New York Times and other media had covered it up. (The Times covered Mr. Biden’s health and age extensively in multiple stories.)在被要求进一步解释时，白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔透过电子邮件表示：“特朗普总统的敏锐头脑、无与伦比的精力以及史无前例的亲民形象与过去四年我们所看到的情况形成了鲜明对比。”他称拜登在那段时间里在身体和精神方面都出现了衰退，而《纽约时报》和其他媒体对此进行了掩盖。（《纽约时报》曾在多篇报道中广泛报道了拜登的健康和年龄问题。）Mr. Trump’s stability has been a recurring issue since he first sought the presidency in 2016. Numerous psychiatrists and other mental health professionals have weighed in with their own opinions even without the opportunity to evaluate him. John F. Kelly, his longest serving White House chief of staff in the first term, even bought a book by 27 of those specialists called “The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump,” in an effort to understand his boss and came to the conclusion that he was mentally ill.自2016年首次竞选总统以来，特朗普的稳定性就一直是一个反复出现的问题。在没有机会对他进行评估的情况下，许多精神科医生和其他心理健康专业人士也发表了各自的看法。他第一任期内在任时间最长的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利甚至购买了27位专家合著的《唐纳德·特朗普的危险案例》一书，试图了解他的老板，并最终得出结论：他有精神疾病。2018年，特朗普第一任期的白宫幕僚长约翰·凯利将军在白宫椭圆形办公室。Mr. Trump has at times tried to leverage his madman reputation. “Make them think I’m crazy,” he told Nikki Haley, his first-term ambassador to the United Nations, referring to the North Koreans. “Do you know what the secret is of a really good tweet?” he once asked William P. Barr, then his attorney general. “Just the right amount of crazy.”特朗普有时也试图利用自己“疯子”的名声。“让他们觉得我疯了，”他曾对其第一任期的驻联合国大使妮基·黑利说，当时指的是朝鲜。“你知道一条真正成功的推文的秘诀是什么吗？”他曾问当时的司法部长威廉·巴尔，“就是恰到好处的疯狂。”Yet Mr. Trump told The New York Post last week that this time, at least, he was not pretending. “I was willing to do it,” he said of his threat to destroy Iran’s civilization.然而，上周特朗普告诉《纽约邮报》，至少这一次，他不是在假装。“我愿意这么做，”他在谈到摧毁伊朗文明的威胁时说道。The public focus on Mr. Trump’s state of mind, goes further than with almost any past president. “Other than Nixon, there has never been this level of concern over time,” said Julian E. Zelizer, a Princeton historian and editor of a book on Mr. Trump’s first term.公众对特朗普精神状态的关注超过了几乎所有历任总统。“除了尼克松之外，从未有过如此程度的持续担忧，”普林斯顿大学历史学家、一本关于特朗普第一任期著作的编辑朱利安·泽利泽说。Indeed, the situation today eclipses even Nixon. Unlike in the 1970s, “so much of this is playing out in public,” especially with social media and cable television, Mr. Zelizer said. And, he added, “as a president who naturally disregards any guardrails or sense of decorum, Trump feels much freer, even than Nixon, to unleash his inner rage and to act on impulse.”事实上，如今的情况甚至超过了尼克松。泽利泽说，与20世纪70年代不同，“如今它在很大程度上是在公众视野中展开的”，尤其是有了社交媒体和有线电视。他还说，“作为一位天生无视任何规则或礼仪规范的总统，特朗普觉得可以随心所欲地发泄怒火、冲动行事，甚至比尼克松还要肆无忌惮。”In his second term, Mr. Trump seems even less restrained and more incoherent at times. He uses more profanity, speaks longer and regularly makes comments rooted in fantasy rather than fact. He keeps saying that his father was born in Germany when in fact he was born in the Bronx. He repeats an invented story about his uncle, an M.I.T. professor, telling him about teaching the terrorist known as the Unabomber.在第二任期内，特朗普似乎更加缺乏约束，有时也更显语无伦次。他使用更多粗话，讲话时间更长，并且经常发表基于幻想而非事实的言论。他反复声称自己的父亲出生在德国，实际上却出生在布朗克斯。他还一再讲述一个编造的故事：他在麻省理工学院当教授的叔叔告诉他，自己教过那名被称为“大学航空炸弹客”的恐怖分子。In recent days, he declared that “Iran’s New Regime President” was “much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors.” Except that Iran’s new president is the same as the old president. There has been no change in presidents. Mr. Trump may have meant the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, but he is considered even more hard-line than his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the war.近日，他宣称“伊朗新政权总统”“没有前任那么激进，也更聪明”。但事实上，伊朗现任总统与之前是同一人，并没有换人。特朗普可能是指新的最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，但外界普遍认为他比其父亲、在战争中被杀的阿里·哈梅内伊更为强硬。周日晚间，特朗普在返回白宫途中。One difference from the first term is that there are few if any advisers like Mr. Kelly who consider it their responsibility to keep Mr. Trump from going too far. “When he does what he does, everyone around him keeps their eyes to the floor and says nothing,” Mr. Zelizer said. “Unlike the first term, they don’t even seem to maneuver behind the scenes to stop him.”与第一任期相比的一个不同之处在于，如今几乎没有像约翰·凯利那样认为有责任阻止特朗普走得太远的顾问。“当他那样行事时，他身边的人都低着头，一言不发，”泽利泽说，“不像第一任期，他们现在甚至似乎连在幕后悄悄设法阻止都不做了。”But there may be political latitude for it with his base. “There is an element of American politics in the age of polarization, particularly within the G.O.P., that likes this style of leadership,” Mr. Zelizer said. “What can be more anti-establishment than someone who is willing to be out of control?”不过，在其支持者群体中，这种做法或许仍有政治空间。“在两极分化的时代，美国政治中——尤其是在共和党内部——有一部分人就是喜欢这种领导风格，”泽利泽说。“还有什么比一个愿意失控的人更反建制的呢？”Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。