SPX (1W) – Primary trend holds: correction absorbedS&P 500SP:SPXEdoLab-MarketsSPX (1W) – Primary trend holds: correction absorbed, new phase beginning The S&P 500 has just completed one of the most intense and fast corrections of the post-2020 bull market. In a matter of weeks, geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, oil prices surpassing $100 per barrel, and the resulting inflationary pressure generated a violent shake that tested the resilience of the long-term bullish structure. The result has been clear: the structure held exactly where it needed to hold. The key to this analysis are the two trendlines visible on the weekly chart. The first, labeled "Previous Main Trend", is the long-term structural reference that has guided the bull market since the COVID lows in 2020. This line has multiple touches across the years and remains well below current price — during the 2026 correction, price never even came close to it. That is an important signal of structural strength. The second trendline, labeled "Accelerated Trend", is drawn from the lows of the tariff-driven selloff in March-April 2025 to the lows of the current correction in March-April 2026. These two touches define the accelerated phase in which the market is currently operating. Price bounced from this line with explosive force, confirming that the Accelerated Trend is the active structural reference at this moment. The Previous Main Trend remains well below as a last-resort support, but the market has not needed it. This acceleration may be related to the sustained expansion of global liquidity. The Federal Reserve's M2 Money Stock has just reached $22.67 trillion, hitting new all-time highs. Historically, sustained M2 expansion has correlated consistently with equity market appreciation, as excess liquidity tends to flow into risk assets. If this accelerated market phase is being partly driven by structural liquidity expansion, it could prove more durable than a purely technical analysis would suggest. Analyzing the moving average structure on the weekly timeframe, price is currently above the EMAs 9 and 20, which now act as immediate dynamic support. The EMA 50 acted as a bounce zone during the correction and remains the most relevant dynamic level to defend in case of renewed pressure. The EMAs 100 and 200 maintain clearly bullish slopes, confirming that the primary long-term trend remains fully intact. On the weekly timeframe, the MACD remains above zero with the histogram in negative territory, reflecting that bullish momentum has not yet fully recovered but the long-term structure has not been damaged. The 89-period Stochastic remains in high territory, compatible with an intact primary bullish trend. The 14-period Stochastic shows recovery from the oversold levels reached during the correction. The 14-period RSI has recovered above 50, the key strength reference level. The ADX indicates that the trend does not yet have defined directional strength — the market is in a transition phase following the correction, which is completely normal at this point in the cycle. Expanding to the monthly timeframe, the context is clearly constructive. The 89-period Stochastic in very high territory confirms that the very long-term primary bullish trend remains fully intact. The 14-period RSI remains in strength territory without having reached extreme overbought levels. The monthly MACD shows that long-term momentum has suffered virtually no structural damage during this correction. The monthly ADX indicates a trend developing in an orderly manner, without extreme acceleration or exhaustion signals. On the daily timeframe, the recovery has been notable. The 14-period Stochastic reflects extreme short-term strength. The 2-period RSI indicates extreme overbought conditions on the daily chart — this is not a structural reversal signal, but it does suggest that price may need to consolidate or pull back slightly before continuing. The daily ADX at 36.50 is especially relevant: it confirms that the recovery move has real directional strength, not just a technical bounce without conviction. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator has remained constructive across all timeframes throughout the correction, with no evidence of massive institutional distribution. This is consistent with the interpretation that what occurred was a technically violent but fundamentally healthy correction — not the beginning of a structural cycle reversal. The VIX, the market's fear gauge, reached a peak of 35.30 during the most acute phase of the recent correction — in the context of recent years, where last year's maximum reached 60, this level reflects significant but controlled tension. From that peak it has collapsed to $21.13 at today's close, and the SuperTrend has just flipped to green — a signal that extreme volatility is being absorbed and market sentiment is normalizing. Historically, this type of VIX turn from panic levels has coincided with relevant correction lows in the SPX. Observing the structure through the ZigZag indicator with Fibonacci retracements, the sequence of higher highs and higher lows that has defined this bull market remains intact. The indicator shows a BULLISH direction with the last pivot at HH and a last swing of 7.37%. Price is currently recovering within the Fibonacci retracement zone from the ATH at $7,002.28. A weekly close above the Fib 0.236 at $6,888.92 would be the first technical confirmation that the recovery toward all-time highs is underway. The question that defines the next phase is whether price will continue developing within the Accelerated Trend channel or whether it will need a broader consolidation period before attacking the all-time highs again. Both paths are constructive. What is not on the table, based on current evidence across all timeframes, is a structural breakdown. For that scenario we would need a convincing monthly close below the Accelerated Trend, deterioration in the long-term moving average structure, and a breakdown of the higher highs and higher lows sequence. None of those conditions are present. The correction has been absorbed. The Accelerated Trend held where it needed to hold. The next chapter of this bull market appears to be beginning. Setup Rating: 7.5/10 👍 Bullish scenario: price breaks above Fib 0.236 at $6,888.92 on a convincing weekly close, maintains the short-term EMAs as dynamic support, and advances toward a retest of the all-time highs at $7,002.28. 👎 Bearish scenario: failure to hold above the weekly EMAs 9 and 20 and a loss of the EMA 50 would imply a more extended consolidation phase, although the structural bias would remain bullish as long as the Accelerated Trend holds. Bullish or bearish from here? Let me know below 👇