Most people will miss the Bitcoin bottom — here’s whyBitcoin / DollarBITFINEX:BTCUSDRomanCassiusTradeEven though the market looks “cheap” locally and a bounce toward $80K–$85K is very possible, it’s way too early to relax. This is not the time to deploy full capital. Yes, extremal fear is already in the market. But in bear cycles, fear can last much longer than people expect. My base case 🧠 Final BTC bottom → $28.000–$35.000 Here’s why 👇 1️⃣ The downtend cycle isn’t finished snapshot Historically: • BTC bear markets last ~12 months • Altcoin markets → 18–24 months We’re likely still mid-cycle. The market still needs about six months of weakness before a full-fledged accumulation and growth phase begins. In other words, in terms of timing, the bear market hasn't yet fully played out. 2️⃣ Market structure has flipped snapshot Bull market: → impulse → consolidation → impulse Now: → drop → consolidation → drop Every bounce is just a pause before the next move down. Classic bearish structure. 3️⃣ ETF buyers zone = liquidity target snapshot BTC ETFs launched around $40.000–$45.000 Main accumulation: $50.000–$70.000 That’s a massive cluster of positions. Markets don’t ignore liquidity. To shake out early buyers, price often moves below the main accumulation zone. 4️⃣ The drawdown isn’t deep enough Previous bear markets: • 2015 → -85% • 2018 → -84% • 2022 → -77% Now: 2026 → only -50% A -70% scenario puts BTC around $37.000. It's aligns with deeper downside potential ❗️What invalidates this scenario? Two key triggers: 1. Break above $80K–$85K trendline → bearish structure is broken 2. Fed pivots to liquidity expansion → no reason for deep downside anymore 🐻 Until then the trend remains down. The bottom won’t come when people expect it It will come when people stop waiting for it