Major Weekend Event: US-Iran Talks Collapse.Gold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDIS_GoldenTeamMajor Weekend Event: US-Iran Talks Collapse. The fruitless conclusion of negotiations implies that the previously prevalent "de-escalation trade" is highly likely to face a reversal; consequently, gold is poised to benefit from a renewed surge in geopolitical safe-haven demand. As the ceasefire agreement nears its expiration, the subsequent evolution of the situation remains fraught with uncertainty. Bullish Factors for Gold: Return of Geopolitical Risk Premium: The breakdown of negotiations suggests that a "conflict premium" may once again be priced into gold; furthermore, the inherent risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global choke point—remain an undeniable reality. In the first quarter of 2026, global central banks collectively made net gold purchases exceeding 200 tons, thereby establishing a solid floor of support for gold prices. Bearish Factors for Gold: Fed officials have clearly signaled a "wait-and-see" stance; market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have narrowed to near zero, and the rates market has even begun to price in the possibility of a rate hike. Gold Holdings Reduced by Some Central Banks: The Central Bank of Turkey sold nearly 120 tons of gold within just two weeks, while gold ETFs also experienced modest net outflows—highlighting the widespread presence of short-to-medium-term speculative positions within the market. Persistently High CPI Data: The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-on-year in March—marking a new high since May 2024—as persistent inflationary pressures continue to dampen market expectations for interest rate cuts. As negotiations reach an impasse and the "de-escalation trade" loses momentum, gold stands to benefit from the resurgence of geopolitical safe-haven demand. Q: From a technical chart perspective, what is the current market outlook? A: In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $4,660 to $4,820, encountering multiple layers of resistance near the $4,800 mark. The current market landscape can be summarized as follows: "Ranging within a consolidation phase, awaiting the emergence of a catalyst to provide directional guidance." Overhead Resistance: $4,780–$4,800 Strong Resistance: $4,850–$4,900 Downside Support: $4,720–$4,730 Key Support: $4,680 Strong Support: $4,650–$4,660 A decisive break below this level could trigger a further decline, potentially testing the $4,600–$4,400 range. Monday Trading Strategy: Adopt a "range-bound trading" approach, prioritizing stability and prudence. Initiate long positions on retracements to support levels (primary strategy). Entry Zone: Focus specifically on the $4,720–$4,730 area. Target 1: $4,780–$4,800 Target 2: $4,850 Stop-Loss: Below $4,680 Key Risk Events This Week: Speeches by Multiple Fed Officials (Throughout the Week): Any statements regarding the interest rate path could trigger market volatility; the release of hawkish signals would exert downward pressure on gold prices. US PPI Data (Tuesday): A key indicator for monitoring inflationary pressures. The Fed's "Beige Book" (Wednesday): Reflects the overall condition of the US economy. US Retail Sales Data (Thursday): Considered a key metric for assessing the resilience of consumer spending within the US economy.