Persian Gulf, industrial normalization will take timeDutch TTF Natural Gas Calendar Month FuturesNYMEX_DL:TTF1!SwissquoteThe energy crisis linked to military operations in the Middle East could persist over time this year, as it will not end on the first day of the end of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran. The oil and gas industrial system does not operate with a simple ON/OFF switch, so the imbalance between energy supply and demand worldwide will remain elevated even after the end of the conflict. Can a major economic crisis be avoided? The answer to this question will depend directly on the ability of Gulf countries to return to their production levels prior to Saturday, February 28. This normalization period will therefore be the dominant fundamental factor in the coming months, and companies in the region estimate that this timeframe will not be measured in days, but at best in weeks, or even months. Overall, the following points can be retained: • It will take on average two weeks to restart production facilities • It will take on average two to three months to return to pre-crisis production volumes, but possibly up to six months to return to 100% The histogram below shows that it will take at least 1 to 3 months for Persian Gulf countries to return to normal oil and natural gas production levels. In detail, the situation remains highly heterogeneous across countries. Saudi Arabia, a pillar of the global oil market, will have to deal with partially damaged refining infrastructure and significant logistical constraints, which could delay a full return to normal. The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait appear slightly better positioned thanks to faster restarts, but remain dependent on their export capacities. Conversely, countries such as Iraq or Iran could face significantly longer delays due to political, security and structural factors. Qatar, a key player in liquefied natural gas, will have to manage the technical complexity of its facilities, which explains longer normalization timelines. Beyond technical capacities, the entire global supply chain is under strain: maritime transport, storage, insurance and financing. This prolonged disruption could maintain sustained pressure on energy prices. As a result, even in the event of a rapid de-escalation of the conflict, markets will have to incorporate a scenario of slow normalization, with persistent effects on inflation and global growth. The table below shows the estimated duration of normalization of the oil & natural gas industrial system in Persian Gulf countries from the moment military operations between the United States, Iran and Israel cease. Several months will be required to return to production levels prior to February 28. 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