ERIKA SOLOMON2026年4月13日周六在德黑兰，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的巨幅海报。伊朗官员称，美国在本周末于巴基斯坦举行的会谈中实际上并无谈判意愿。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York TimesVice President JD Vance summed up the failure of 21 hours of negotiations with Iran in one sentence: “They have chosen not to accept our terms.”副总统万斯用一句话总结了与伊朗长达21小时谈判的失败：“他们选择不接受我们的条件。”To Iranian officials, that line reflected their biggest problem with the talks, too: The United States, they argue, had not come to negotiate.在伊朗官员看来，这句话恰恰也道出了他们对此次谈判最大的不满：他们认为，美国根本不是来谈判的。“Bingo,” Javad Zarif, the former foreign minister who led Iran’s negotiators in the nuclear deal negotiations with Washington and Europe in 2015, highlighting the comment from Mr. Vance, wrote on X. “No negotiations — at least with Iran — will succeed based on ‘our/your terms.’”伊朗前外长穆罕默德·贾瓦德·扎里夫曾在2015年带领伊朗谈判团队与美欧达成伊核协议，他在X平台上特意引用了万斯这句话，并写道：“一语中的，任何谈判——至少是和伊朗的谈判——都不可能基于‘我们的/你们的条件’而成功。”“We are open to dialogue and negotiation,” Medhi Tabatabei, a deputy to Iran’s president, wrote on social media on Sunday. “But we do not submit to force.”伊朗总统副手迈赫迪·塔巴塔拜伊周日在社交媒体上写道：“我们对于对话与谈判持开放态度，但我们绝不屈服于武力。”Both Washington and Tehran sent their mediators to talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Saturday asserting that they had the upper hand. And both left those talks still thinking they had the edge, even as they left room open for diplomacy.周六，美伊双方均派调解人前往巴基斯坦伊斯兰堡参加谈判，双方都声称自己占据上风。谈判结束后，双方仍然都认为自己握有优势，但同时也为后续外交接触留下了空间。U.S. officials see their advantage in the devastating damage they have inflicted on Iran — killing most of the leaders who ran the country before the war, and hammering its military bases and infrastructure. On Sunday, Mr. Vance told reporters that “we’ve made very clear what our red lines are” and “what things we’re willing to accommodate them on.”美国官员认为，他们的优势在于对伊朗造成了毁灭性打击——炸死了战前执掌国家的大部分领导人，并重创了伊朗的军事基地和基础设施。周日，万斯对记者表示：“我们已经非常明确地划定了红线”，并且“说明了我们愿意在哪些方面做出让步”。副总统万斯周六抵达巴基斯坦首都伊斯兰堡，准备与伊朗方面举行会谈。Iran’s government sees itself not only as victorious for having survived that onslaught, but also for having emerged with a new and strategic card. Since the war began, it has asserted control over passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping corridor — and it is not willing to give up that leverage now.伊朗政府则认为，自己不仅因为在这场猛攻中幸存下来而取胜，还获得了一张全新的致胜战略王牌。自战争爆发以来，伊朗已经掌控了霍尔木兹海峡这一关键石油运输通道的通行权，而且现在绝不打算放弃这一筹码。“We will not stop for a moment in working to secure the achievements of the last forty days,” Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of Parliament and the head of the negotiating delegation, wrote in a statement on social media on Sunday.伊朗议会议长、谈判代表团团长穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫将军周日在社交媒体上发表声明称：“我们将一刻不停地努力，捍卫过去40天取得的成果。”Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, framed the leveraging of Hormuz as a new chapter in Iran’s history of using its geography against foreign attackers. He compared Iranian forces’ ability to block maritime traffic in the strait to the ancient Persians’ use of Abu al-Hayat, a pass in the Zagros Mountains, to repel Alexander the Great.伊朗最高领袖高级顾问阿里·阿克巴尔·韦拉亚提将利用霍尔木兹海峡作为筹码描述为伊朗利用地理优势抵御外来侵略者历史的新篇章。他将伊朗军队封锁海峡海上交通的能力比作古代波斯人利用扎格罗斯山脉的阿布·哈亚特隘口击退亚历山大大帝。“Just as the “Abu al-Hayat Pass” once symbolized the blocking of outsiders,” he wrote on social media, “today the Strait of Hormuz is firmly in our hands.”他在社交媒体上写道：“正如当年的阿布·哈亚特隘口象征着阻挡外来者，如今霍尔木兹海峡牢牢掌握在我们手中。”Regional observers say the diplomatic impasse in Islamabad reflects a bigger geopolitical struggle between the two foes.地区观察人士表示，伊斯兰堡的外交僵局反映了这两个宿敌之间更宏大的地缘政治博弈。“This isn’t just a dispute over who was victorious — it’s a dispute over the meaning of the war itself,” said Ramzy Mardini, founder of Geopol Labs, a Middle East-based geopolitical risk advisory firm.“这不仅仅是一场关于谁获胜的争论，更是关于这场战争本身意义的争论，”总部位于中东的地缘政治风险咨询公司Geopol Labs创始人拉姆齐·马尔迪尼表示。“For Tehran, this is a war that revises the regional order — one that redefines the rules and allows it to break out of the constraints and sanctions imposed on it.” Washington, he said, “still sees itself as enforcing an existing hegemonic order that others must conform to.”“对德黑兰而言，这是一场重塑地区秩序的战争——它重新定义了规则，让伊朗得以摆脱强加在自己身上的种种限制与制裁，”他说。而华盛顿“仍将自己视为现有霸权秩序的执行者，要求其他国家必须遵守这一秩序”。The idea that a day of diplomacy would unlock decades of entrenched issues was always a long shot. Iranians were already embittered by President Trump’s withdrawal in 2018 from their previous nuclear deal with Washington. Before the war in February, Mr. Trump’s mediators pressed Tehran to relinquish its uranium stockpiles and halt uranium enrichment. The various rounds of talks went nowhere.指望一天的外交斡旋就能解决数十年根深蒂固的问题本来就是不切实际的幻想。伊朗人早已因特朗普2018年退出美伊此前达成的核协议而心怀怨恨。今年2月战争爆发前，特朗普的调解人就曾施压德黑兰，要求其放弃铀储备并停止铀浓缩活动。多轮谈判均无果而终。“We should not have expected to reach an agreement in a single session from the outset,” said Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman of Iran’s Foreign Ministry. “No one had such expectations.”伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加伊表示：“我们从一开始就不该指望能在一次会谈中达成协议。没有人抱有这样的期待。”This round of negotiations are even thornier, now that Iran seems determined not to give ground over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran not only seeks to control the waterway, but Iranian politicians have also signaled they hope to extract money from it. If Iran can collect tolls from vessels going through the strait, the money could help finance the enormous reconstruction efforts that lie ahead.本轮谈判之所以更加棘手，是因为伊朗似乎决心在霍尔木兹海峡问题上寸步不让。伊朗不仅寻求掌控这条水道，其政界人士还暗示希望从中获取经济收益。如果伊朗能向过往船只收取通行费，这笔资金将有助于支撑未来规模庞大的重建工作。周日，阿曼海岸外的霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗决心在该海峡问题上绝不退让。A simple return to the era of free navigation before the war is not in the cards if Iran’s leaders get their way, said Sasan Karimi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran and the former deputy vice president for strategy in Iran’s previous government.德黑兰大学政治学家、前伊朗政府代理战略副总统萨桑·卡里米表示，如果伊朗领导人如愿以偿，那么单纯地回到战前自由通航的时代是不可能的。And yet Iranian negotiators say the United States’ aims went even beyond a return to that status quo, Mr. Karimi said, to demanding shared management of the strait.卡里米说，然而伊朗谈判代表表示，美国的目标甚至超出了恢复战前原状的范畴，进而要求共同管理霍尔木兹海峡。“It is nonsense that America would have management of the Hormuz Strait,” he said. “Iran is not going to deliver such concessions to Donald Trump that he couldn’t grasp in the war.”“美国要管理霍尔木兹海峡，这简直是无稽之谈，”他说。“伊朗绝不会向唐纳德·特朗普做出这种他靠战争都没能得到的让步。”“Iran showed already it is not to be defeated easily — this is not an easy game like Venezuela,” he added, referring to the quick U.S. operation in January to remove the Venezuelan president and assert its own terms on the country’s remaining leaders.“伊朗已经证明，它不是那么容易被打败的——这不是像委内瑞拉那样容易搞定的事，”他还说。他指的是今年1月美国迅速采取行动推翻委内瑞拉总统，并向该国剩余领导人强加自己条件的行动。Mr. Trump said on Sunday on his social media that his next move is to impose a U.S. naval blockade on Iran in the strait. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he wrote. “Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION.”特朗普周日在其社交媒体上表示，他的下一步行动是在海峡对伊朗实施美国海上封锁。他写道：“任何向我们或和平船只开火的伊朗人，都将被炸得粉身碎骨！绝不允许伊朗从这种非法敲诈行为中获利。”That will pose new risks for the global economy, said Ali Vaez, the head of the Iran program at the International Crisis Group, a think tank. Iran will probably urge its regional ally, the Houthi forces in Yemen, to block Bab al-Mandeb, another crucial shipping route at the southern tip of the Red Sea.智库国际危机组织伊朗项目负责人阿里·瓦埃兹表示，这将给全球经济带来新的风险。伊朗很可能会敦促其地区盟友也门胡塞武装封锁红海南端另一条关键航运通道曼德海峡。And if diplomacy ultimately fails and fighting resumes, Iranian officials are banking that they can get Mr. Trump to blink over the global economic chaos before they are exhausted by U.S. military blows.如果外交最终失败，战事重启，伊朗官员指望在被美国军事打击拖垮之前，全球经济混乱会迫使特朗普先做出让步。Current U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has retained a significant amount of its weapons stockpiles and has been able to dig out its missile bunkers and silos faster than anticipated.美国当前的情报评估显示，伊朗仍保留了大量武器储备，且清理修复导弹掩体和发射井的速度超出预期。“They could hold their ground for another two months, if not more. And economically, I think there is no threshold for how much more pain the Iranians are willing to tolerate,” Mr. Vaez said.瓦埃兹说：“他们至少还能再坚守两个月。而在经济层面，我认为伊朗人愿意承受的痛苦没有上限。”“The question really is: Is the Trump administration willing to pay the high economic price?”“真正的问题是：特朗普政府是否愿意为此付出高昂的经济代价？”Sanam Mahoozi对本文有报道贡献。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。