EUR/USD short: Ignore Drunk Uncle at your own perilEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDjvrfxalertsHello traders The phenomenon of Drunk Uncle is not exclusively about the belligerent family member at the American Thanksgiving table, it also spans across all cultures and major events like weddings, funerals and other family events. The current macro geopolitical environment is rife with politicians thumping their chest and making statements and taking actions that affect all of us. Equities in the USA seem to be ignoring the risk with markets rallying on any glimmer of an end to the Iran war. BTC is holding up well at the moment. Gold has just bounced off the downtrend line and that is the canary in the coal mine. Uncertainty is back. Financial journalists are harping on about the TACO trades but not so fast. Despite all the rhetoric from the Iranians, the UK PM about high energy costs, the Euro Zone not loving what is happening, the ultimate outcome rests with President DJT. And that folks, is also the conclusion you have to reach for yourself. Is it Drunk Uncle blabbering on over the Thanksgiving feast or is this a President dead set on finishing what he has started? The technical picture for EUR/USD is clear. The war will affect Europe more in the short term than the energy independent USA, not that it makes it less painful to pay $7/gallon for Premium in California. Inflation in the USA up 3.3%. No rate cuts in the near future. ECB may have to raise rates to offset energy inflation but the spread is still favoring US T bills. The technical picture speaks for itself. I initiated a short position after the release of the CPI data on Friday, despite the risk of a USA/Iran deal being reached over the weekend. The gap down at the open reinforced my outlook. A more cautious approach may be to wait for a daily close below 1.1655. Best of luck.