BILL SAPORITO, DAVID STUBBS2026年4月8日When will the conflict with Iran end? President Trump’s timeline, like his military strategy, is ephemeral. But its knock-on effects are already here. This war is, in all likelihood, affecting your life — and will continue to for most of this year.与伊朗的这场冲突何时结束？特朗普总统的时间表就像他的军事策略一样飘忽不定。但其连锁反应已经显现。这场战争极有可能正在影响你的生活，并且这种影响在今年大部分时间里将持续存在。Let’s start with your summer vacation planning. The airlines are responding to high jet fuel prices by raising fares while trimming their schedules — United has already announced a 5 percent flight cut. That means fewer seats will be available at peak travel season and flight crews will work fewer hours.先从你的暑期旅行计划说起。面对高企的航空燃油价格，航空公司的对策是提高票价并缩减航班——美联航已宣布削减5%的航班。这意味着旅游旺季的座位将更少，机组人员的工时也将缩短。Heading to or from a city such as Presque Isle, Maine, or Butte, Mont., that is served exclusively by regional airlines? Those flights will be the first to be canceled, Mike Boyd, an airline industry consultant, has pointed out. Carriers can’t run the small, 50-seat jets that serve those markets profitably when jet fuel has more than doubled to more than $4 a gallon.计划前往或离开像缅因州普雷斯克岛或蒙大拿州比尤特这样仅由支线航空公司服务的城市？航空业咨询师迈克·博伊德指出，这些航班将首当其冲被取消。当航空燃油价格翻倍至每加仑4美元（约合每升1美元）以上时，航空公司无法盈利地运营那些服务此类市场的50座小型喷气式飞机。The value carriers that serve popular destinations such as Orlando and Las Vegas could be particularly hard hit. Florida-based Spirit Airlines, known for its yellow jets and unbundled fare structure, just emerged from its second bankruptcy; Frontier, its Western counterpart, delayed orders for new planes and canceled some leases on its current fleet to concentrate on filling the planes it has. And all this is on top of the airport chaos created by bad weather (hello, climate change), air traffic controller shortages and Transportation Security Administration staffing issues.服务奥兰多、拉斯维加斯等热门目的地的廉价航空公司可能受创尤重。以黄色机身和“裸票价”结构闻名的佛罗里达精神航空刚经历第二次破产；其西部同行边疆航空则推迟了新机订单，并取消了部分现有机队的租赁，以集中精力提高现有飞机的上座率。而这一切，还叠加了恶劣天气（你好，气候变化）、空管人员短缺及运输安全管理局人手不足所造成的机场混乱。Road trippers won’t have it much better. For recreational vehicle owners or renters, a trip to national parks such as Zion or Great Smoky Mountains — already suffering from DOGE budget cuts — will get more challenging with R.V.s that average six to 15 miles per gallon in mileage. Motor boaters could be up a creek, too.自驾游也不会好到哪里去。对于房车车主或租户来说，前往锡安、大烟山等国家公园的旅程（这些公园已因效率部预算削减而运营维艰）将因房车百公里约16到39升的高油耗而更具挑战。摩托艇爱好者也可能举步维艰。Expect to pay even more for food, also. Prices for meat, wheat, coffee and sugar are rising because the planting, harvesting, processing, storage and transportation of food is energy intensive. Farmers are struggling to get the fertilizers they’ve ordered from the Middle East. The price of anhydrous ammonia fertilizer, one of the most used, is up more than 20 percent this year. Farmers can buy potash-based fertilizers from Canada — but those are subject to a 10 percent tariff. The other big supplier? Russia.预计食品价格也会进一步上涨。肉类、小麦、咖啡和糖的价格正在攀升，因为食品的种植、收获、加工、储存和运输都是能源密集型产业。农民们正艰难地从中东获取订购的化肥。最常用的无水氨肥价格今年已上涨逾20%。农民可以从加拿大购买钾肥——但需缴纳10%的关税。另一个主要供应商？俄罗斯。If the current fertilizer disruption interrupts planting season, which is already underway in many parts of the world, food prices will rise in the back half of the year.如果当前的化肥供应中断影响到许多地区已经开始的种植季，那么今年下半年的食品价格将会进一步上涨。And that’s not all.而这还不是全部。In developed countries like ours, persistently high inflation increases the risk that the Fed and other central banks will feel compelled to raise interest rates. That lifts the price of borrowing money across the economy: not just credit card and auto loans, but also mortgage rates.在美国等发达国家，持续的高通胀增加了美联储及其他央行被迫加息的风险。这将推高整个经济体的借贷成本：不仅是信用卡和汽车贷款，还包括抵押贷款利率。Although conventional wisdom says that central banks should look beyond an energy price shock and not change their rates, their capacity to remain steadfast is limited. Still contending with their pandemic-era inflation, Europe’s central banks may soon have to consider raising rates to protect their inflation-fighting credentials — another economic brake when we hardly need one.尽管传统观点认为央行应忽略能源价格冲击而不调整利率，但它们保持定力的能力是有限的。仍在应对疫情时期遗留通胀的欧洲央行，可能很快不得不考虑加息以维护其抗通胀的信誉——这在我们本不需要的时候又踩了一脚经济刹车。At a time when rising oil prices are pressuring family budgets, E.U. governments may be forced to cut their spending. Interest rates on government bonds have risen sharply in Britain and France since the start of the war, meaning these nations will have to spend more to cover debt payments, leaving less money for price relief for the public.在油价上涨挤压家庭预算之际，欧盟各国政府可能被迫削减开支。开战以来，英国和法国的国债利率大幅上升，这意味着这些国家必须花费更多资金偿还债务，留给公众的价格补贴资金将更少。The great build-out of the artificial intelligence infrastructure — which has been pumping billions into our economy — is also in jeopardy. Helium is a vital component in semiconductor production, and one-third of the world’s supply is produced in Qatar, which has been targeted by Iranian strikes. Without a reliable supply, the semiconductor manufacturers that make chips won’t be able to meet demand. So, too, is the level of financing for these projects, tied to a retrenching private credit sector and perhaps a pullback by sovereign funds in the Middle East that must now spend to repair war damage.为经济注入数十亿美元的人工智能基础设施建设热潮也面临风险。氦气是半导体生产的关键原料，而全球三分之一的供应来自卡塔尔——该国一直是伊朗袭击的目标。没有可靠的供应，芯片制造商将无法满足需求。同样受影响的还有该领域的融资水平，这与正在收缩的私人信贷部门有关，中东主权财富基金如今可能因需拨款修复战争损失而撤回投资。Most of America’s problems, and they are not insignificant, still pale in comparison with what’s happening in the rest of the world. Developing nations are in a particularly dangerous bind. The United Nations reckons that more than 670 million people were living with hunger in 2024 and, across 68 countries in which the U.N. World Food Program is active, 318 million people are projected to face acute hunger this year.美国的这些问题虽不容小觑，但与世界其他地区相比，仍是小巫见大巫。发展中国家处境尤为危险。联合国估计，2024年有超过6.7亿人处于饥饿之中；在联合国世界粮食计划署有援助项目的68个国家，预计今年将有3.18亿人面临严重饥饿。This is all assuming that everything in Iran remains as is. Things could get a lot worse in a hurry if the Houthis in Yemen decide to block the Strait of Bab al-Mandab at the mouth of the Red Sea, where ships must pass after transiting the Suez Canal. That is likely when $100 a barrel oil becomes $200 a barrel.以上推演均假设伊朗局势维持现状。如果也门胡塞武装决定封锁红海入口的曼德海峡（船只通过苏伊士运河后的必经之路），情况可能急转直下。届时，每桶100美元的油价很可能变成200美元。The worst-case scenario is impossible to predict, of course, but what’s becoming more certain is that if disruption from the Iran conflict is still significant on the day America celebrates its 250th birthday, the bill for the party is going to be enormous.最坏情况固然无法预测，但越来越确定的是：如果在美国庆祝建国250周年那天，伊朗冲突造成的混乱依然严重，那么这场“生日派对”的账单将会是天文数字。Bill Saporito是评论版高级编辑。David Stubbs是AlphaCore财富咨询公司的首席投资策略师。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site