ORCL: Not Yet, But Close. My $117–$120 Engagement ZoneOracle CorporationBATS:ORCLBluntForceOptionsWatching ORCL closely here... no position yet, but the wash-out is starting to get to a level where I want to be ready. Stock is down roughly 60% from the September high, which is a remarkable move for a name that was the undisputed AI infrastructure darling six months ago. The euphoria unwind has been brutal and largely deserved given how far ahead of itself the multiple got, but every cycle eventually overshoots in both directions. The tape: – Knifed through the 50-week and 100-week SMAs without much of a fight – Currently sitting on the 200-week (~$139.50) -- last real moving-average defense – Weekly RSI 34.5, weekly stochastics under 9 -- washed on the timeframe that matters – Descending triangle on the weekly with the apex pointing lower, and MACD still firmly in distribution – No reversal signal yet -- this is a "build the shopping list, don't chase" moment Where I'd actually engage: the $117–$120 zone. That's the next real horizontal shelf below the 200-week, and it lines up with structural support that held through most of 2024. If the 200W fails -- which the triangle setup suggests is the higher-probability path -- I think that's where the flush exhausts itself. I'm not interested in catching the knife in the middle of the descent. I want price to come to a level the chart has actually defended before. Structure when I pull the trigger: likely a combination -- short puts to get paid for the patience, paired with LEAPS calls and/or common, depending on what the flush and confirmation look like in real time. Setup-dependent, not predetermined. I want to see how it behaves when it gets there before I commit to the exact mix. The thesis ties back to what I said on IGV last week -- the AI disruption story has the entire enterprise software complex getting painted with the same brush, and Oracle is one of the names where the bathwater is getting thrown out with the baby. ORCL isn't a pure SaaS reseller hoping to survive -- it's an infrastructure layer with one of the largest cloud capex commitments outside of the hyperscalers, embedded enterprise relationships measured in decades, and a database business that quite literally runs the back end of a meaningful chunk of corporate America. The stock got punished for promising too much on OCI growth and capex; the underlying business didn't break. Bear case I'm respecting: capex/free cash flow concerns are real, the OCI revenue ramp has to actually show up in the numbers, and "down 60% from the highs" doesn't mean it can't go down another 20% from here before it finds a real bid. Momentum is awful, the trend is broken, and there is no technical reason yet to be early. Patience is the entire trade. Plan: alert set at $120. I'll let the tape come to me. NFA -- just laying out what I'm watching. Do your own work and DD.