WTI crude oil settled at $112.41 per barrel on Monday, April7, 2026, while Brent closed at $109.77, as President Trump's Tuesday nightultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept the market on edge. Bothbenchmarks have nearly doubled since January, when WTI traded below $58, makingthis the steepest year-to-date rally since 2008. Six months ago, the oil price prediction consensus centeredon oversupply and sub-$60 crude. The effective closure of the Strait, throughwhich 20% of global oil supply once flowed daily, has replaced that narrativeentirely. Goldman Sachs now calls it the largest supply shock in thehistory of the global crude market, and the question facing traders is nolonger whether prices stay elevated, but how high they can go.Followme on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDkWhy Oil Prices Are Rising?Strait of Hormuz and the Tuesday UltimatumThe warbetween the US-Israeli coalition and Iran, which began on February 28 withcoordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has now entered its sixthweek with no resolution in sight. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday, April 8, at 8PM ET to reopen the Strait or face strikes on every bridge and power plant inthe country. Iran rejected Washington's ceasefire proposal and submitted itsown 10-point plan, which includes a permanent end to hostilities and thelifting of sanctions, according to Axios.The scaleof supply destruction is historic. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billionbarrels will be lost by the end of April, comprising approximately 600 millionbarrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products. Ryan McKay,senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients thatthe conflict lasting into deep April means the supply math is getting worse bythe day. Rapidan Energy projects a total net loss of 630 million barrels of oiland products by the end of June.Samer Hasn,Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted that the continued surge comes asmarkets anticipate further escalation, which threatens structural disruption tocrude oil supply chains originating in the region. He added that energy marketsare bracing for a massive supply shock as the geopolitical theater enters themost dangerous phase of the war.OPEC+agreed on Sunday to boost production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but as Finance Magnates' analysis of the74% three-week oil price surge from March 9 established, the theoretical increase is meaningless whilethe Strait remains closed and Gulf infrastructure sustains ongoing damage. KuwaitPetroleum Corporation reported significant drone damage to several operationalfacilities over the weekend. OPEC+ itself warned that repairing energyinfrastructure attacked during the conflict is costly and time-consuming.However, there are early signs of a partial thaw. Shippingdata from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 8 tankers transited theStrait on Monday, up from fewer than 2 per day throughout March. That remains afraction of prewar volumes, but represents the first measurable improvementsince hostilities began.Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer RelationshipManagement at Kudotrade, noted that early signs of potential de-escalation havetempered supply concerns to a degree, pushing prices down from intraday highs.But he cautioned that underlying conditions remain fragile and vessel transitthrough the Strait remains limited.Oil Technical Analysis:WTI Oil Price Chart at 2022 War LevelsMy chart shows WTI crude has been trading since early Marchwithin a volatility channel that mirrors the price range observed during the2022 Ukraine war spike. Based on my over 15 years of experience as an analystand trader, this is a structurally significant pattern.The resistance zone at $114-$115 per barrel forms the upperboundary of the current consolidation. WTI has tested this area for threeconsecutive sessions without a decisive breakout. In 2022, this same price zonemarked the beginning of the final push toward the $130 intraday high. Asustained close above $115 would suggest the market is repricing for aprolonged disruption scenario rather than a near-term resolution.The lower boundary sits at approximately $84 per barrel,corresponding to the session lows from early March that were subsequentlyretested in late March. This level coincides with the 50-day exponential movingaverage, reinforcing its importance as dynamic support. As the FinanceMagnates coverage of the initial Strait of Hormuz closure from March 2documented, the oil price gap that opened between $66 and $84 during the firstweek of the conflict remains partially unfilled.Oil WTI price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.comThe structural dividing line between a bullish and bearishWTI outlook sits near $70 per barrel, where the 200-day moving averagecurrently runs. This level also intersects with the bullish gap from theFebruary-March 2022 Ukraine war breakout. A retreat below the 200 MA wouldrequire either a ceasefire or a resolution far more comprehensive than what iscurrently on the table.My directional bias remains cautiously bullish as long asprice holds above the 50 EMA at $84. A breakout above $115 targets $130 andpotentially higher. However, the outcome depends less on technical patterns andmore on whether the current crisis produces a diplomatic resolution or anescalation. As I noted in previous FinanceMagnates oil market coverage, the fundamentals shifted the oil narrativefrom oversupply to supply crisis in under five weeks, and they can shift itback just as quickly.Oil Price Prediction 2026: What Banks and Analysts ForecastThe institutional consensus has undergone a dramaticrevision since February. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs projected WTIaveraging $53 per barrel in 2026. That forecast now looks like it belongs to adifferent era.Goldman Sachs, led by commodities analyst Daan Struyven,raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $85 per barrel on March 22, up from$77, with the WTI forecast lifted to $79 from $72. The bank's model assumesroughly six weeks of severely restricted Hormuz flows. For Q4 2026, Goldman'sbase case sits at $71 Brent and $67 WTI, but its risk scenario, which assumes atwo-month disruption, pushes Q4 Brent to $93. Goldman has flagged a peakscenario at $135 per barrel if the market needs to force demand destruction tooffset six months of restricted supply.JPMorgan issued the most aggressive warning among majorbanks. The bank's commodities team cautioned that Brent could overshoot toward$150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut into mid-May. Asthe FinanceMagnates analysis of $200 oil scenarios from March 30 outlined, Macquarieand Wood Mackenzie have sketched similar upside ranges, though the $200 levelremains an extreme tail risk rather than a base case.The U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose updatedShort-Term Energy Outlook was due for release on April 7, projected in itsMarch report that Brent would remain above $95 over the next two months beforefalling below $80 in Q3 and toward $70 by year-end. That forecast assumes theStrait gradually reopens, a condition that has yet to materialize.The futures curve tells its own story. As oiltraders increasingly turn to prediction markets for forward signals, theBrent forward curve prices a decline to $90 by August and below $80 byDecember, indicating the market's base expectation remains that the disruptionis temporary.FAQHow high can oil prices go in 2026? JPMorgan warns Brent crude could overshoot toward $150 perbarrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed into mid-May. GoldmanSachs has flagged an extreme peak scenario at $135 per barrel. WTI crudesettled at $112.41 on April 7, 2026, up roughly 96% year-to-date. The outcomedepends primarily on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict.Why are oil prices rising so fast in 2026? TheUS-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28, 2026, effectively closed theStrait of Hormuz, choking off approximately 20% of global seaborne oil supply. TDSecurities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and products will belost by end of April. This represents the largest supply disruption in thehistory of the global crude market, according to Goldman Sachs.Will oil prices go down in 2026? The EIA projects Brent falling below $80 per barrel by Q3and toward $70 by year-end, assuming the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.Goldman Sachs' Q4 2026 base case is $71 Brent and $67 WTI. A ceasefire dealbetween the US and Iran would likely trigger a rapid decline in crude prices,as the futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August.What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz reopens? A full reopening of the Strait would remove the war premiumcurrently embedded in crude prices. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachsprojected WTI averaging $53 in 2026. However, analysts caution that even aftera ceasefire, infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supplynormalization could take months, limiting the pace of any price decline.What is the oil price prediction for the end of 2026? Goldman Sachs' base case projects $71 Brent and $67 WTI byQ4 2026. Under a risk scenario where Hormuz disruptions last two months,Goldman sees Q4 Brent at $93. JPMorgan's pre-war outlook assumed Brentreturning to the $60 range. The EIA forecasts approximately $70 Brent byDecember, contingent on resumed Strait flows and US production growth averaging13.6 million barrels per day.This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.