My USD/CAD Trade Report — October 2025United States Dollar / Canadian DollarCMCMARKETS:USDCADECOINFXI’m positioning long on USD/CAD, planning an entry around 1.3930–1.3960. My stop loss is set near 1.3830, and I’m targeting 1.4245 first, with potential extension to 1.4388. This trade gives me a solid 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio, risking about 120 pips for over 350 pips of upside. Technically, the pair is in a steady uptrend, printing higher highs and higher lows since mid-2025. The breakout above 1.3850–1.3900 confirms bullish continuation, and as long as price holds above 1.3830, the structure remains intact. I see 1.4050 as short-term resistance, but if momentum carries through, my targets at 1.4245 and 1.4388 come into play. On the fundamentals, the setup still favour's USD strength over CAD. The Federal Reserve is holding rates high around 5.25–5.5%, while the Bank of Canada faces pressure to cut further because domestic data is weak. Both Canadian manufacturing and services PMIs are in contraction territory below 50, showing a slowdown. Meanwhile, oil prices hovering between $60 and $70 are an added drag on the Canadian dollar, since lower energy prices cut into Canada’s trade balance. The U.S. economy continues to show resilience, which underpins USD demand. This trade rests on the interest-rate gap, Canada’s soft data, and weak oil prices. The risks I’m watching are stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs or inflation data, a sudden rebound in oil above $80, or the Fed signalling earlier-than-expected cuts. Overall, I’m moderately bullish USD/CAD through Q4 2025. As long as 1.3830 holds, I’ll stay with the long bias. My plan is to scale out partial profits near 1.41 and ride the remaining position toward 1.42–1.44.