BBC"Oh God," and then a pause, a sigh, and then, "Oh God," again.Just as a senior Conservative was telling me the party might be able to climb out the terrible hole it's in, news popped up of another of its ranks deserting for Reform UK. Their response?Sad resignation, at yet another resignation.The individual exit of Sarah Atherton, who was briefly a defence minister when the Tories were in power, is not the point. Well over a dozen Conservative MPs or former MPs have made that same move. The question for the Conservatives perhaps this weekend is: is there a point?You don't need me to tell you that the Conservatives are unpopular - deeply so. The hangover from the last election was always going to be nasty after a proper thumping, 14 years in power, and, oh yes, those five prime ministers. But the party's standing has fallen even further since then.No discernible bounce with its new leadership under Kemi Badenoch. No profit from the misery of the government. For the group once regarded as the most successful political operation in the western world, it's dire.Technically, the Tories are still the main opposition. That brings status and meaning. It's Badenoch who gets to ask six questions of the prime minister every week. It's the Conservatives who, as is traditional, are most often called on to respond to government announcements. They still have way more MPs than the Liberal Democrats, or the SNP, and legions more than Reform or the Greens.But politically, it just doesn't feel at this moment that they are the government's hungry main challengers. That's in part because they were smashed to bits in July 2024 and it was always going to take a bit of time to come round.It's in part because the party is so far behind in the polls. It's in part because the government is very deliberately making its arguments against Reform, not their traditional Conservative rivals.As another senior party figure observes, Labour's "framing of cutting the Tories out is the right one".It suits Labour and the Lib Dems to treat the Tories as if they are irrelevant. And it's in part, many Conservatives argue, because Badenoch "just hasn't generated any traction, any attention" during her time in charge.As the Conservatives arrive in Manchester for their conference, in the very serious aftermath of the attack on Heaton Park synagogue, the primary job is to grab any attention: perhaps the Tory party is smack bang in the middle of a battle to matter at all.ReutersPrime Minister and Labour leader Sir Keir StarmerLike it or not, just as Sir Keir Starmer has discovered, grumpy parties who are not doing well point the finger at their leader. Badenoch has admirers in the Conservative Party for speaking out on particular issues like single-sex spaces, free speech, or declaring that some cultures are in her view "less valid" than others. Some of her colleagues applaud her blunt, tell-it-like-it-is manner.But politics is also a business of charm and empathy. A senior Tory told me after the election defeat the party had to "go everywhere and do a mea culpa, to listen and take a kicking". But the issue with Badenoch, they say, is "she is grand... hasn't been anywhere and isn't listening to anyone". Ouch.With conference about to start, it's almost a Tory tradition to fill the papers and podcasts with gripes about the party leader. She has had some more effective performances at Prime Minister's Questions. Policies are starting to emerge. Money has kept flowing to the party. One of her backers maintains that although she is still "finding her way", she has some of the same "strength and character as a young Margaret Thatcher". Thatcher was seen as "strange and shrill" when she got the job, but became the party's most successful boss of modern times. But as Badenoch approaches a year in the job, it's becoming harder to find people who'll make that comparison.Whatever Badenoch's personal strengths and failures, there is a different criticism of how she has gone about the job, with a party veteran suggesting, "there is just no pace, no nimbleness".Maybe that should have been staring the party in the face: her original pitch for the job was "Renewal 2030" - a date past the next general election.During many of her interviews Badenoch has said she wants to take her time working out the right moves for the party, developing credible ideas rather than being rushed. You can expect lots of policy to be unveiled in the next few days.But politics moves incredibly fast, and another source agrees pace is a problem, saying: "What she misunderstood is you get one chance to introduce yourself to the public – she lost the chance to generate any traction and she won't get that back."Reform UK leader Nigel Farage was only too happy to step into that "vacuum", gaining strength in the polls and grabbing headlines while the Tories were busy making other plans.Getty ImagesBadenoch after delivering a speech at the Institute of Chartered Accountants' Hall in SeptemberCandidly, it is not unusual to hear Conservatives saying freely in private that Badenoch won't be in the job for long, she could be "out by Christmas", or "might not even have to be dragged out" if the party bombs at the polls in a set of mega elections in May.Indeed, when asked the question herself in a conference warm-up interview, she more or less said: Well, ask me then.Refreshingly honest from a leader who isn't fully in control of her own destiny? Or foolhardy when this is a moment when she ought to be mustering as much authority as she can? The conference gives a shop window to the party and its leader to show what she is made of too.As one senior MP says: "This conference is about her, and making it clear she has a direction and a sense of where she is going, and it is hers and she is going to lead it – we have this one chance.""We understand the polls aren't great, a source close to the party leadership adds. "There needs to be a bit of understanding from those who are grumbling."But where is Badenoch trying to lead?"If I want a can of full fat coke, then I go and buy one, if I like what Reform are saying I'm gonna vote Reform, I'm not going to vote for a party that's not quite there," a party insider says.Badenoch's signals on climate change, on leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, tip towards the right of the Conservative spectrum, on territory that right now, Reform have painted in bold primary colours.Bloomberg via Getty ImagesReform leader Nigel Farage has grabbed headlines while the Tories were busy making other plansBadenoch is a Brexiteer, a strong advocate of free speech, and seemingly often up for a spat in the latest round of culture wars. But politics is a business - not quite like any other - but a business nonetheless. And many in the party reckon she is going after the wrong customers and ought to be trying to appeal more to soft liberals or soft Tories, rather than to those interested in Reform."Frankly, the gap in the market is on the centre right," one source says. Some of the current Tory top brass are keen to get the argument onto issues they hope might appeal more to more voters, and it's not stupid to guess it, yes, the economy.One shadow minister says: "We have to talk about the money in your pocket and trying to articulate what all of Labour's tax rises and debt means to you in terms of the cash in your pocket and the food in your fridge."With Reform UK in the ascendant, are they the right enemy for the Tories in any case, one source wonders? Their presence on the right means the Conservatives right now don't have the luxury of assuming they will always be the number two. The party used to be "free to carry on in opposition in our own space – now when the party looks for who its enemy is, is it Labour, Reform or Lib Dems, or it doesn't know?".According to one source close to the party leadership, in recent years people have struggled to know what the party stands for: "We have flip-flopped, criss-crossed, gone from [Theresa] May to [Boris] Johnson, to [Rishi] Sunak."There will be big announcements over the next few days setting out Badenoch's position "and it will be the job of MPs and councils and everyone to go and sell that message".Getty ImagesBadenoch giving a speech earlier this yearAs party members and associated hangers-on start to arrive in Manchester today, there are reasons to be gloomy for the current leadership. If you look back at the polling, Badenoch is in a worse position according to net satisfaction ratings than John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak. (If you're wondering, I didn't forget Liz Truss, but she wasn't around long enough to have her popularity measured after nearly a year)."I don't remember it ever being this bad," says one insider, suggesting not just that Badenoch's time will be up before too long, but also that the party has been hollowed out of experience and knowledge, and many of the big-name MPs who have stuck around have, frankly, rather checked out.But one of Badenoch's backers suggests it's the party, not the leadership, that ought to have a word with itself. They told me their colleagues have got a "messiah complex - ever since Margaret they think there is a leader out there who will lead them to the promised land".In other words, get your heads down, get your work done, and stop thinking it's all about the person at the top."We need to understand real history, not folk history," they say, suggesting a new leader would not and could not solve the party's problems on their own. Do it again, and a frontbencher suggests "people will think, 'Oh God, they haven't changed!'"But the overall picture for the Tories' top team is as foul as the weather in Manchester which awaits them. "They're not relevant, they don't matter - that is the big thing the current team have not understood," one Tory source worries."If it's not resolved soon it's easy to see how we might be in third or even fourth place" when it gets to the next election, they add.Not for the first time, you don't need me to remind you - but I will - that politics in the 2020s is a very unpredictable era. There are known unknowns. Might Badenoch pull off a blinding speech this week? Will Labour be patient with Sir Keir until the general election? Will Reform hold together? Will the economy improve? And unknown unknowns that we can't list right now.And anyone who claims to know what's next may as well be trying to sell ice to an Eskimo.The Conservative party has been pronounced more or less gone before. There was even a book published titled "The Strange Death of Tory England". Five years later, David Cameron strolled into No 10.But the party is in trouble. Conferences are always an opportunity for political parties, but also a risk. The pressure is on the Tories to show they matter in the next few days, or more on their own side may wonder what they're for.More from InDepthHow much trouble is Labour in - and is the PM the right man for the job?Nick Robinson: How the simmering row over freedom of speech in the UK reached boiling pointEd Davey loves clowning around, but is it time the Lib Dems got serious?BBC InDepth is the home on the website and app for the best analysis, with fresh perspectives that challenge assumptions and deep reporting on the biggest issues of the day. And we showcase thought-provoking content from across BBC Sounds and iPlayer too. You can send us your feedback on the InDepth section by clicking on the button below.