Intel Recently Hit a 25-1/2-Year High. What Does Its Chart Show?

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Intel Recently Hit a 25-1/2-Year High. What Does Its Chart Show?Intel CorporationBATS:INTCmoomooIntel will report Q1 earnings this week at a time when the chip giant's stock recently hit its highest level in some 25-1/2 years. Let's see what its chart and fundamentals show. Intel's Fundamental Analysis INTC is set to release results after the bell on Thursday, with the Street looking for $0.01 in adjusted earnings per share on almost $12.4 billion in revenue. Numbers like that would compare poorly to the $0.13 adjusted EPS that Intel reported a year ago, while reflecting a roughly 2.5% year-over-year sales contraction. In fact, 24 of the 34 sell-side analysts that I know of who cover INTC have revised their earnings estimates lower for the quarter lower, while just eight have boosted their numbers. (Two analysts have left their numbers where they were.) All in, Intel might not appear to be humming along -- but Wall Street has been nonetheless pricing in better times ahead as CEO Lip-Bu Tan (who joined last year) tries to turn the firm around. INTC shares are up some 200% since last June, so there very well might be something going on here. Of course, a lot could depend on Intel's key chip-foundry unit running more efficiently and approaching operational profitability. Intel's Technical Analysis Now let's go to INTC's chart running from last July through Wednesday afternoon (April 15): Intel's entire uptrend is illustrated here by a Raff Regression model, the orange-and-pink-shaded areas running across the chart's entire length. Readers will also see that Intel developed a basing period of consolidation around September and running into late December 2025, as marked by the black box-like lines in the chart's center. The stock then broke out and developed a new basing period in January that ran into early April (the second set of black box-like lines at the chart's right). Intel then took back both its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or "EMA," marked with a green line) and 50-day Simple Moving Average (or "SMA," denoted by a blue line) in early April. This likely attracted swing traders and portfolio managers to the stock. Intel's $55 high from Jan. 21 could serve as the stock's pivot point, which shares have cracked to the upside. (INTC closed Tuesday at $66.26.) Meanwhile, Intel's Relative Strength Index (or "RSI," marked with a gray line at the chart's top), has entered overbought territory. Similarly, the stock's daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (or "MACD," denoted by blue bars and black and gold lines at the bottom) is set up quite bullishly. The histogram of the 9-day EMA (the blue bars) is now well above the zero-bound, as are the 12-day EMA (the black line) and 26-day EMA (the gold line). That's all technically positive. Making the situation even more bullish, the black line is running well above that gold line. An Options Option Some options traders are likely trying a so-called "bull-put spread" ahead of earnings in case Intel tests its $55 apparent pivot from the upside in response to this week's results. A bull-put spread involves selling one put and simultaneously buying another with a lower strike price, but where both expire on the same day. Here's an example: -- Short one INTC put with an April 24 expiration (i.e., after earnings) and a $55 strike price. This would bring in roughly $0.75 at recent prices. -- Long one INTC April 24 $50 put for about a $0.25 cost. Net credit: $0.50. These options traders will pocket the $0.50 net credit (the maximum theoretical gain) if Intel trades at or above $55 at expiration. And should the shares trade below $55 at expiration but above $50, traders will end up owning INTC at a $54.50 net basis. But should the shares trade below $50 at expiration, traders will end up buying Intel at $55 and immediately selling that position at $50 a share -- suffering a $4.50 net loss after factoring in the $0.50 net credit. That would be this trade's maximum theoretical loss. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle had no position in INTC at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. 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