Gold at Support — Reversal Setup or Breakdown Trap?

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Gold at Support — Reversal Setup or Breakdown Trap?XAU/USD SpotFX:XAUUSDThomaSs_MatthewHello traders! Here’s my technical outlook based on the current XAUUSD (4H) structure. Gold has recently shifted into a short-term bearish phase after rejecting from the 4,880–4,900 resistance zone, where strong selling pressure initiated a downside move. Since that rejection, price has been forming a sequence of lower highs while respecting a clear descending trendline, confirming that sellers are currently in control of the market structure. The recent sell-off has now pushed price into a key higher timeframe support zone around the 4,640–4,680 area. This zone has previously acted as a demand base, where buyers stepped in and drove price higher. As price approaches this level again, we are entering a critical decision point where liquidity is likely building below the lows. At the moment, price is compressing into support while still trading under the descending trendline, creating a potential liquidity sweep scenario. My primary expectation is that price may dip slightly below the support zone to grab sell-side liquidity before initiating a reaction. If buyers defend this area and we see a strong rejection, gold could reverse and move back toward the 4,780 level (TP1), followed by a continuation toward the 4,880 resistance zone (TP2), aligning with the projected bullish recovery path. However, the structure remains fragile. If price breaks and holds below the 4,640 support zone, it would invalidate the bullish scenario and confirm continuation to the downside, potentially targeting deeper levels below the current range. This is a high-probability reaction zone where both scenarios are valid, but the key lies in how price behaves at support either a liquidity sweep and reversal, or a clean breakdown and continuation. Feel free to share your thoughts and support the idea 🚀