Key Bullish Factors for GoldGoldOANDA:XAUUSDAlbie_Walker# Key Bullish Factors for Gold 🏦 1. Central Bank Purchases Provide Strong Support, Limiting Further Declines (Core Medium-Term Support) 95% of global central banks plan to increase their gold holdings by 2026. China, India, and Turkey have been buying against the trend, increasing their purchases as prices fall. The 4650-4680 range represents the medium- to long-term cost line for global central banks and institutions. Once gold prices fall to this range, passive buying, bargain hunting, and concentrated central bank purchases will emerge, forming strong buying support and limiting further declines. Historical data shows that since 2025, every time gold prices have touched the 4650-4680 range, a rebound of 30-50 USD has occurred. Currently, 4695 is above the cost line, with extremely limited downside potential and a high probability of a bottoming out and rebound. 💵 2. The Fed's interest rate meeting is highly likely to release dovish signals, reversing expectations (core bullish catalyst). Currently, market expectations for rate cuts are low, with only a 36.8% probability of a September rate cut. However, the market widely expects today's meeting to release dovish signals, a downward revision of interest rate expectations in the dot plot, and Powell's hints at a September rate cut and a slowdown in balance sheet reduction. If these expectations materialize, it will directly strengthen rate cut expectations, cause a sharp drop in the dollar and US Treasury bonds, lower real interest rates, and an influx of funds into gold, pushing gold prices above $4750 and targeting $4780-$4820. Historically, on days when the Fed releases dovish signals, gold has a 90% probability of rebounding by $40-$60. Today's expectation reversal makes a bullish move for gold highly certain.