Thủ Thiêm’s futureOn March 26, Vietnamese state media announced that all households in Ho Chi Minh’s Thủ Thiêm New Urban Area had “agreed to move,” accepting compensation and resettlement. Domestic media had already announced that vehicles would be restricted in the area so that undisclosed but urgent construction tasks could be carried out.However, widely circulated videos on social media tell another story. Streets were blocked by police for days as residents protested against low compensation and the coercive eviction from their land. Livestreamed testimonies said the Internet had been disabled, with electricity and water cut off. Despite resistance, the forced eviction was successful, in a way. After decades of lawsuits, residents lost their land.The project in the central business area has resulted in the eviction of nearly 15,000 households and the demolition of numerous religious and historic monuments, with little say given to the public.If ever there was an area ripe for redevelopment, however, it is the Thủ Thiêm ward, a massive 657-hectare horseshoe-shaped peninsula directly across the Saigon River from Ho Chi Minh City’s historic District 1. Envisioned as the “Manhattan of Vietnam,” it is designed to be the city’s new modern financial and cultural hub for the 21st century.Unfortunately, the Thủ Thiêm ward had a thriving population who had lived there perhaps for centuries. 14 to 15,000 households have already been ousted, with 5,000-odd still left. The area is designed to eventually accommodate roughly 130,000 to 145,400 permanent residents once completed, as well as over 217,000 regular employees and up to a million visitors during peak events.Thủ Thiêm todayAs the country undergoes rapid development, land disputes have increased nationwide. Cases of forced land seizures have been reported across the country. What is presented as compliance is often driven by coercion rather than genuine consensus.Opposition costs too highThe heavy police presence in Thủ Thiêm evokes painful memories of the deadly, long-running land dispute in Đồng Tâm commune on the outskirts of Hanoi. On Jan. 9, 2020, thousands of police entered the commune and clashes erupted, killing three policemen and a civilian, Lê Đình Kình, a veteran, former local official, Communist Party member, and leading protest figure. He had become a spiritual leader and vowed to defend what villagers considered their ancestral land, but which the government designated as public land for state-defined purposes.That tragedy demonstrated that earlier promises of dialogue between the state and affected communities were hollow. Under Party General Secretary and President Tô Lâm, the Ministry of Public Security has become unprecedentedly powerful. Four out of 19 Politburo members, including Tô Lâm, have police backgrounds.Vietnam’s 2013 Constitution says land is collectively owned by the people and administered by the state. In practice, however, this framework – combined with inconsistent and often lax management by local authorities – has created fertile ground for disputes, particularly in cases where historical land-use rights are ambiguous.In practice, compensation is typically limited to land formally recognized by land-use rights certificates and remains subject to interpretation by local authorities. The amended 2024 Land Law introduced no fundamental change. Land, in effect, remains under state control, with authorities retaining broad powers to reclaim or lease it for self-styled socio-economic development or national defense purposes.As a result, even those holding land-use rights certificates often find themselves in a precarious position, effectively tenants on their own land, paying taxes on property that can be seized at any time.It is now common in Hanoi to see large groups of landowners gathered at the central offices of the Communist Party of Vietnam to demand justice. Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City stand out as cities where citizens have been openly dissatisfied with below-market compensation for land confiscation.Disciplining leaders does not mean justice for victimsThe municipal People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City has publicly apologized to local residents for shortcomings in the Thủ Thiêm project, acknowledging that it had not “followed what was approved,” particularly in relation to households on approximately 4.3 hectares outside the planning zone. However, the apology didn’t translate into any meaningful redress.In 2020, government officials in Ho Chi Minh City faced charges for land mismanagement in a massive urban development project that led to the confiscation of land rights for 15,000 people. Lê Thanh Hải, a former member of the Politburo and former Secretary of the Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee, was expelled from the Communist Party. But this did not necessarily mean that justice would be served for the affected citizens.Thủ Thiêm residents may feel an even deeper sense of injustice. Under the former South Vietnamese regime (1955–1975), citizens were allowed to own land. Private land ownership formally remained in place until 1980, when the new Constitution abolished the right to private land ownership in a unified Vietnam.Last December, at a national conference reviewing anti-corruption, anti-wastefulness and anti-negativity efforts during the term of the Party’s 13th National Congress, Tô Lâm said that 80-90 percent of misconduct cases lodged against officials were related to land, which speaks volumes about discontent over land issues.Yet Tô Lâm is also known for championing fast GDP-centric economic growth. Modernization has been equated with mushrooming real estate projects. According to state media, the state is building the largest plaza in Vietnam in Thủ Thiêm, which is to become a landmark of modern Ho Chi Minh City. Yet for thousands of residents, modernization has carried profound and often overlooked costs – chronic insecurity, fractured communities, lost livelihoods and a generation left behind.Also, the police under Tô Lâm are major law-makers. Last December, in a draft decree on integrating security with socio-economic development, the Ministry of Public Security proposed participating in reviewing national master plans, national land-use planning, socio-economic development plans, and even medium-term and annual public investment plans.More violence to comeThe 2020 violence of the Đồng Tâm clash extended far beyond the death of the spiritual leader Lê Đình Kình. His two sons were sentenced to death, and his grandson received a life sentence, all on murder charges, even though they had been attacked by the police. Several villagers, including Lê Đình Kình’s adopted daughter, were given prison terms of between 12 and 15 years, while others received shorter sentences for “resisting law enforcement officers.”As of now, local police have reportedly refused to issue a death certificate for Lê Đình Kình on the grounds that his wife must state that he died in the field, not at home. As a result, he has been denied even official recognition of being killed.The government has branded those who suffered in Đồng Tâm as terrorists and rioters, and forced arrested villagers to confess their alleged crimes on TV. Domestic media accused them of receiving external funding and direction from exiled opposition groups that the government labels terrorist organizations.Human rights defenders who advocated in the case have also paid a high price. Before rising to the top post, Tô Lâm headed the Ministry of Public Security from 2016 to 2024. As of 2026, he has put more than 70 independent journalists in prison.To pay respects to Lê Đình Kình and support the residents of Đồng Tâm, activist Nguyễn Thúy Hạnh raised funds on social media platforms. Around $20,000 in local currency was contributed by people across the country. Shortly after, the Ministry of Public Security subsequently froze the bank account, and the funds remain inaccessible.In April 2021, Nguyễn Thúy Hạnh was sentenced to three and a half years in prison on the concocted charge of “making, storing, or spreading information, materials or items for the purpose of opposing the State of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.” Such charges were also brought against the family of prominent land-rights defender Cấn Thị Thêu and her two sons for disseminating information about the Đồng Tâm incident on social media. The three were sentenced to a total of 37 years in prison.People in Thủ Thiêm are aware of the possible consequences, yet being homeless and jobless on their own land after decades of hard work and hardship leaves many with nothing more to lose.On several streets in the Thủ Thiêm area, signs of protest remain. Hopefully, the history of Đồng Tâm won’t repeat itself. It is not only a story of the past, but also a test of the future. Monetary compensation could be paid, but public trust has already been lost.The author’s name is being withheld out of concern for prosecution by the Vietnamese government.