BTC Analysis - Trading in Ascending Channel StructureBitcoin / TetherUSBINANCE:BTCUSDTDickDandyBitcoin has been trading in this main ascending parallel channel structure since its inception. Currently - price is sitting below the major bottom of the channel. Therefor I would favour a short position for the day - leading into the FOMC data, and in my macro perspective a flash crash makes sense considering the likely rate cuts over the next years. SCENARIO - BEARISH (Flash Crash): The short position works like this: Entry below breakdown line: Entry - 77,200 to 77,600 Stop Loss - 83,000 Take Profits of Flash Crash / Channel breakdown: 1) 64,400 2) 57,300 (take 50% of profit here at next channel support) Note - If we see a drop to 57,300, the next channel support, the likelyhood of further breakdown of price is very high, due to liquidity sitting in hidden stop loss orders to a large degree in these zones. Price crossing these levels opens stop loss orders to trigger market sells (these orders don’t show in heatmaps or limit orders as they are market sells). 3) 47,500 4) 34,900 5) 20,400 6) 8,000 SCENARIO - BULLISH (Rise to channel mid section before crash) Price would rise (likely as a fast wick type move) to hit the zone around 93,500 to 94,200 before rejecting and falling. Looking at liquidity in the zones between current price and that level, the possibility of that happening is moderate to relatively high. SUMMARY: We are at a critical zone and trading direction is quite risky today. Currently price favours short as we are below the breakdown line around 77,200 However - with macro news and major data releasing today, price can easily be forced into short stop loss orders triggering market buys and rocketing price up to that 93,000 zone. If you are trading today - you’ll want to exercise proper risk management by utilizing both low leverage and tight stop loss levels - cutting a losing direction early and letting price move and perform its liquidation cascades before settling into a stable directional trade. For those who are okay with risk exposure, my strategy currently is: Short Bitcoin to 8,000 unless I see a cascade shooting price higher past 78,000-80,000. If that occurs I will not long, I will watch for that liquidation cascade to settle and look for a short entry around that 93,000 zone. Alternatively a sound strategy today would be hedging, with an approximate split of your margin as follows: Short Bitcoin - 70% margin Long ETH - 30% margin Stay safe today - and don’t get greedy. Proper risk management and survival is the strongest strategy on major data days. There is a lot of abnormalities in the markets that point to some form of major movement occurring anytime now, such as: OIL looking like it will rocket up to execute a short squeeze DXY looking like it will reject a major bearish structure and support a bull market for equities and Bitcoin the next 3-6 years GOLD / XAU looking like it will flash crash This trinity of charged energy on these assets makes for the perfect formula for a major movement on Bitcoin - coinciding further with geopolitical tensions and government mistrust and instabilities, as well as critical FED Chair changes. Happy trading. Subscribe for more of this content and analysis. - Dick Dandy