USD/JPY holds firm near 160 ahead of the Fed decision. FTSE 100 opens lower amid a deluge of earnings and ahead of central bank meetings.USD/JPY Holds Firm Near 160 Ahead of Fed DecisionUSD/JPY remains steady just below the 160 level as investors await the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today. The US dollar is edging higher into the event, supported by a backdrop of persistent geopolitical risk in the Middle East, where there are few signs of a near-term resolution.The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged — a decision that appears fully priced in. As such, market focus will shift to Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary, which could carry added significance given speculation it may be his final appearance as Fed chair ahead of a potential transition to Kevin Warsh.A key question for markets is whether Powell will remain on the Board of Governors through 2028 or step down following the end of his chair term.Elevated oil prices, trading above $110 per barrel, are adding to inflationary pressures, lifting Treasury yields and complicating the policy backdrop. This creates a challenging environment for the Fed, requiring a balance between inflation risks and growth concerns. Against this backdrop, the central bank is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance, reinforcing expectations that rates will stay higher for longer.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains on intervention watch as USD/JPY hovers near the 160 threshold. This comes despite the Bank of Japan delivering a hawkish hold earlier this week. The BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, while raising its inflation outlook and lowering its 2026 growth forecast, citing the economic impact of Middle East tensions.The decision saw a 6–3 vote split, signalling stronger-than-expected concern over rising inflation pressures.Separately, the Japanese Finance Minister reiterated that authorities stand ready to intervene in currency markets at any time to support the yen.USD/JPY Forecast - Technical AnalysisUSD/JPY has traded within a broad range since March, with support around 150.77 and resistance near 160. The pair remains above its 50-day moving average and close to the top of the range, while RSI holds above 50, indicating underlying bullish momentum.A sustained break above 160 would expose the 2024 high. On the downside, a move below 157.70 would signal a lower low, opening the door toward the 156.00 level and the 155.50 area, where rising trendline support comes into play.FTSE 100 Opens Lower Ahead of Central Bank DecisionsThe FTSE 100 opened lower, slipping to a four-week low as investors remain cautious ahead of a series of central bank decisions, including the Federal Open Market Committee later today and the Bank of England meeting tomorrow. Sentiment is also shaped by a heavy flow of corporate earnings.Oil prices remain elevated above $110 per barrel as geopolitical tensions persist. Peace talks remain stalled, and the US is reportedly set to extend its blockade-related measures around the Strait of Hormuz, adding to supply concerns.The resulting stagflationary backdrop is expected to keep the Bank of England on hold, with rates seen unchanged at 3.75% as policymakers assess the economic impact of the Middle East conflict.On the corporate front, Aston Martin, AstraZeneca, GSK, and Lloyds Banking Group have reported first-quarter results, while JD Wetherspoon and Jet2 issued trading updates.Lloyds Banking Group edged higher after posting a 33% increase in profit, beating analyst forecasts. Stronger lending income helped offset a £151 million charge linked to a deterioration in the economic outlook tied to the Iran conflict. Profit before tax rose to £2.0 billion from £1.52 billion a year earlier, above expectations of £1.84 billion. The bank cautioned that Middle East tensions could weigh on the UK economy, potentially lifting unemployment and prompting a reassessment of credit risk scenarios.AstraZeneca also delivered a profit beat and maintained its 2026 outlook, supported by robust demand for cancer and rare disease treatments, alongside continued investment in the US and Chinese markets. First-quarter revenue rose 8% to $15.29 billion, exceeding forecasts of $14.9 billion, while core earnings per share came in at $2.58, ahead of the $2.54 consensus.Meanwhile, GSK reported stronger quarterly profit and reiterated its full-year guidance, expecting 3%–5% sales growth and operating profit growth of 7%–9%.Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain focused on oil prices and broader risk sentiment heading into the FOMC decision later today.FTSE Forecast - Technical AnalysisThe FTSE 100 has rebounded from its March low of 9,626, finding support at the 200-day moving average. However, the recovery stalled near 10,700, forming a potential double-top pattern. The index has since turned lower, breaking below the 50-day moving average and testing support around 10,250, the January high.A break below this level would open the door toward the 10,000 psychological mark and expose the 200-day moving average near 9,830.On the upside, any recovery would need to reclaim the 50-day moving average around 10,450. A move above 10,700 would be required to establish a higher high, shifting the near-term structure and bringing the record high at 10,935 into focus.Original Post