France April flash services PMI 46.5 vs 48.5 expected

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Prior 48.8Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 49.5 expectedPrior 50.0Composite PMI 47.6 vs 48.6 expectedPrior 48.8French economic activity is seen contracting at its quickest pace in 14 months as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to bite at Europe's second largest economy. That comes despite some positive news from the industrial side of things, with stronger factory output growth recorded for the month.That being said, the jump in factory order books owes much to some frontloading activity. It is the first time in nearly four years that the order book expanded but it is mostly due to clients bringing forward purchases ahead of expected shortages and price increases as supply issues arise from the Strait of Hormuz closure.To nobody's surprise, input price inflation continued to surge higher in April - rising to a three-year high. A mix of higher costs for energy,fuel, transportation, chemicals and metals were commonlymentioned by panellists. So, just be mindful of that as it will eventually reverberate to all other aspects of the economy in due time.HCOB notes that:"There is a lot to unpack in the latest 'flash' PMI datafor France. The service economy has deteriorateddue to a diminishing willingness to spend – a typicalconsequence of uncertainty – pulling overall businessactivity levels lower. Preventing the headline 'flash'index from falling even further below 50.0 was themanufacturing sector, which saw a production reboundin April. However, this does not look like a turning pointand will likely be temporary, as our survey respondentsreported advance purchasing from customers inanticipation of price increases, shortages and logisticsissues."Unsurprisingly, manufacturing inflation moved evenhigher in April as a range of raw material costs rose,transportation became more expensive and supplybottlenecks pushed up prices. Services companies arealso feeling the pressure from higher transportationcosts. What's most notable is that the passthroughto prices charged for goods and services remainscontained. Services charges have barely moved sincethe outbreak of the war, which will be a welcome sightfor policymakers in the European Central Bank. Howlong this continues remains to be seen, however, giventhe strain that corporate margins will be feeling." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.