President Museveni addressing MPs at Kyankwanzi recentlyAs the country is thoroughly distracted discussing a treasonous bill – the so-called, “Protection of Sovereignty Bill” – President Museveni will be sworn in, in the coming weeks. This is more important than the bill itself. But what does swearing-in an 82-year-old head of state mean for country? What does “renewing a mandate” for a human being (not a machine) who has been at the same job for the last 40 years mean? Even if this were a machine, having not upgraded it in the last forty years signals a problem. There is no machine good enough for forty years straight; despite the quality of servicing. We are in a nervous condition, but sadly decided to bury our heads in the sand. If there is anything to learn from the actions of Museveni’s closest kindred in the last two years, it is that they understand the inevitability of time. We are all human. Mere mortals. Despite the long list of our dreams, even the best care and services, and safeguards, the body finally succumbs to the ruins of time. With neither disease nor accidents, the joints become rusty, and the fine skin wrinkles and caves in. That President Museveni has continued to wear a mask among other things – five years after Covid-19 – signals his own fears and fragilities. His son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba understands this fact – hence the Patriotic League Uganda (PLU) proudly and rightly nicknamed “standby generator.” Museveni’s smashing daughters, Natasha and Patience also understand this fact. Natasha publicly thanked the old man, and Patience organised a prayer session at Kololo where the old man was asked to apologise to country but specifically to Buganda. These are signs. FROM THE BELLY OF THE BEAST I will say one more time, and it is a painful fact for all change-seeking Ugandans: change has to begin from inside the belly of the beast. Not NRM. But inside Museveni’s family – and Museveni is a lucky man; he has a list of potential replacements, not limited to just his most-decorated son. Let me restate this for clarity: If it is not death-in-office (which is recipe for disaster), change will not come from opposition groups. I have argued before that moving from Yoweri Museveni straight to Bobi Wine is simply unthinkable – both locally and internationally. Or from Museveni to Col. Kizza Besigye. The shock this might cause the entire system would be almost catastrophic. For a peaceful transition, it ought to be paced, and the first ones will come from inside the Museveni machine, and then progressively to a people’s darling. Unless, of course, a revolution happens, and all prediction is cast through the window. Notice that inside the Museveni machine, PLU is the only accepted form of negotiation. I know, they border on unseriousness. Deputy speaker of parliament at the recent Muhoozi Birthday Run at KololoBut to be fair to them, PLU find themselves conditioned to striking a pro-NRM posture. But are undoubtedly, the only opposition that cannot be jailed. Powerfully captured in their nickname – standby generator – is the notion that using the man’s most-decorated son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, younger folks inside the NRM (and older ones, such as Ministers Kabyanga, Nobert Mao) are looking at Museveni with absolute nervousness. They are sure that at one time, the country may find itself without power, in a blackout. Thus, the standby generator ought to roar into action immediately – powering country and overseeing a transition to more power generation. Thus, that ugly nickname that they have proudly embraced despite the embarrassment that comes with it. Indeed, PLU members even recently acquired revolutionary identity numbers (RIN 001, 002 etc.) as part of their effort to craft some pseudo-historical lineage. These performative practices look like jokes, but there is method, and urgency – and strategy. VICE PRESIDENT MUHOOZI KAINERUGABA Among other things, a newly elected president has to give the country a new cabinet. Being incumbent himself, Museveni is likely to keep many folks from the old guards. But he has to signal to the time. He has no choice. If he feels any sense of generosity to his friends and associates (and not necessarily, country), he will have to appoint Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba as Vice President. This will be the first and urgent signal towards a transition. As per the current constitutional arrangement, the VP takes the presidency if the current president becomes incapacitated. This would make Gen. Muhoozi a president in waiting. Of course, over the past years, Muhoozi has smuggled some of his associates into Museveni’s cabinet (as interns?) I know many of us are still waiting for Minister Andrew Mwenda getting his call. Or Minister Marcela Karekye, among others. But with journalist Allan Kasujja receiving a call up, and Don Wanyama already at New Vision, surely the lineup looks attractive for Muhoozi’s associates. (I can only imagine the pro-Muhoozi posturing among the old-guards ongoing behind the curtains). The speakership position is held to this context as well: if Museveni sees himself strong enough to complete these five years ahead, current speaker Anita Annet Among will retain her position. But if he feels his bones are increasingly quarrelsome, it will be Muhoozi’s choice for speaker. Nobert Mao and Thomas Tayebwa seem the most aligned of all contenders. In this transition phase – if Museveni chooses to be generous to his friends and associates, and wants to “protect their gains” – he’ll have to prepare the many co-octogenarians towards the reality of times ahead. Many “fishermen” and “fisherwomen” (Museveni’s own words), and over-70-year-olds might be forced into “early” retirement. Of course, I’m speculating. But if the signals around the man and his family and close associates were read well, surely, this kind of measured transition is the only gift Museveni could give the country. yusufkajura@gmail.com The author is a political theorist based at Makerere University.The post Museveni has no choice but to give friends a transitional cabinet appeared first on The Observer.