FUNDAMENTALOVERVIEWThe strong bullish momentumin the S&P 500 has waned recently as the prolonged US-Iran stalemate broughtthe attention back to underlying risks. The constant push for adiplomatic resolution instead of another full-fledged war has been supportingthe risk sentiment on expectations that a deal would be reached eventually.Nonetheless, the stalemate is causing oil prices to rise, and we are now backaround triple digit levels.That looks unlikely tochange anytime soon as Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal to first open theStrait of Hormuz and then hold nuclear talks. Unfortunately, with stock pricesat all-time highs Trump might not feel any pressure to concede. Therefore, we might get stuckin a longer consolidation phase until the next major catalyst. This might even set thestage for the next big selloff if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for muchlonger and oil prices stay elevated, thus forcing the Fed to hike interestrates in the coming months. Today, we have the FOMCpolicy decision and although the Fed is expected to keep everything unchangedamid the US-Iran uncertainty, there’s a risk of a more hawkish leaning due toresilient US data and a longer than expected US-Iran war. A neutral Fedshouldn’t bring much volatility, but a more hawkish one could trigger a bigger pullback.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOnthe daily chart, we can see thatthe momentum in the S&P 500 haswaned recently amid the US-Iran stalemate. The previous all-time high aroundthe 7,040 level might now act as support. If the price pulls back, we canexpect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to positionfor a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will lookfor a break lower to position for a drop into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOnthe 4 hour chart, we can see theconsolidation has led to a break below the major upward trendline. This generallyprecedes a bigger pullback or a more extended consolidation before the nextmove. Again, from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a betterrisk to reward setup around the support to keep pushing into new highs, whilethe sellers will wait for a break lower to open the door for new lows.S&P 500 TECHNICALANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, wehave a minor resistance zone around the 7,190 level. The sellers will likelycontinue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistanceto position for a drop into the 7,040 support. The buyers, on the other hand,will look for a break to pile in for a rally into new record highs. The redlines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the FOMC policy decision. Tomorrow, we get the US Q1 GDP, theUS Employment Cost Index and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday,we conclude the week with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.