With polling in the second phase of the Assembly elections in West Bengal set to conclude later on Wednesday, all eyes will now be on the exit polls. With Kerala and Assam having completed voting on April 9 and Tamil Nadu on April 23, exit polls for all four states are expected shortly after polls close in Bengal. Results are scheduled to be announced on May 4.Exit polls from 2021 show that surveyors were largely accurate in their predictions of a BJP win in Assam and a DMK win in Tamil Nadu, they were slightly off the mark in Kerala despite predicting an outright majority for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). However, in West Bengal, pollsters had underestimated the extent of the Trinamool Congress’s dominance, predicting a narrow win for the Mamata Banerjee-led party.AdvertisementWest BengalNo exit poll after the 2021 West Bengal Assembly predicted the TMC’s strong performance and every pollster overshot the BJP’s actual tally by a significant margin, with a handful incorrectly predicting a BJP majority.The TMC had won 215 seats and its then ally Gorkha Janmukti Morcha 1 seat. The BJP had won 77 seats, while Congress ally Indian Secular Front had won 1 seat. The majority mark in Bengal’s 294-member Assembly is 148 seats. 2021 West Bengal exit pollsToday’s Chanakya was the closest in its prediction, but still fell short of the actual result by a considerable margin with its estimation of 169 to 191 seats for the TMC and 97 to 119 seats for the BJP. The furthest off the mark was Jan Ki Baat, which saw the TMC falling out of power with 104 to 121 seats and the BJP comfortably clearing the majority mark with 162 to 185 seats. India Today-Axis My India had predicted a narrow majority for the BJP.AdvertisementOn average, the exit polls underestimated the TMC performance by 61 seats and overestimated the BJP performance by 49 seats.Tamil NaduIn Tamil Nadu, pollsters overshot the DMK’s actual seat tally, but only by a small margin, correctly predicting that it would oust the then ruling AIADMK. Every exit poll, however, accurately estimated that the DMK would secure an outright majority.The DMK and its allies together had won 159 seats, with the remaining 75 seats going to the AIADMK and its partners. The majority mark in Tamil Nadu’s 234-member Assembly is 118 seats. 2021 Tamil Nadu exit pollsTV9-Polstrat, Shining India News and Patriotic Voter were the closest to the actual results with their predictions of 143 to 153 seats, 147 to 177 seats and 153 seats, respectively. Every other exit poll far overestimated the DMK’s performance, with India Today-Axis My India going as high as 175 to 195 seats.On average, the exit polls overestimated the DMK’s performance by 7 seats and underestimated the AIADMK’s tally by 12 seats.KeralaWhile exit polls accurately predicted the LDF would return to power in Kerala, they were unable to capture the extent of its performance, expecting stronger showing from the Opposition UDF.In 2021, the LDF had secured 99 seats to win a second consecutive term, while the UDF fell to 41 seats. The majority mark in Kerala’s 140-member Assembly is 70 seats. 2021 Kerala exit pollsThe News24-Today’s Chanakya exit poll was the closest, predicting 93 to 111 seats for the LDF and 26 to 44 seats for the UDF. India News iTV-Jan Ki Baat, Manorama News-VMR and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat were among those to predict hung Houses or very narrow majorities. India Today-Axis My India overestimated the LDF performance the most, predicting 104 to 120 seats, and putting the UDF at 20 to 36 seats.On average, pollsters underestimated the LDF by 17 seats and overestimated the UDF by 15 seats.AssamAmong these four election states, exit polls were most accurate for Assam, predicting the BJP’s return to power within a margin of a handful of seats.In 2021, the BJP and its allies had won 75 seats, with the Congress and its allies at 50 seats, and 1 seat going to an Independent. The majority mark in the 126-member Assam Assembly is 64 seats. 2021 Assam exit pollsWhile TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat and India Ahead-P Marq had predicted a hung Assembly, every other pollsters saw the BJP winning an outright majority. India News-Jan Ki Baat and News24-Today’s Chanakya were the closest in their predictions, putting the BJP’s tally at 70 to 81 seats and 70 seats, respectively, and the Congress’s performance at 45 to 55 seats and 56 seats, respectively.On average, pollsters underestimated the BJP by 4 seats and overestimated the Congress by 4 seats.