A nuclear power plantThe conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated sharply. The US military has enforced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and peace talks in Pakistan have collapsed. The Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, is now under immense pressure. Shipping transits have dropped to near zero. The International Energy Agency reports the largest supply disruption in oil market history, with up to 20 million barrels per day removed from global circulation. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel. For those shaping the future of energy and fuelling development, the message is loud -When survival is threatened, energy security stops being a background concern and becomes the only thing that matters. Emissions targets go to the back of the line. WHY EMISSIONS TAKE A BACK SEAT WHEN ENERGY SECURITY IS THREATENED We have seen this pattern before. When Russian gas supplies were cut, Germany, a country with ambitious climate targets, reactivated coal plants. It was not the direction many wanted, but it kept the lights on. Energy was secured. A wider conflict will push more countries to make similar fallback calculations. Coal, oil, gas, biomass – all available energy sources become lifelines. Even marginal oil fields once rejected may be brought into production. Strategic petroleum reserves will be expanded post the conflict. Investments in energy diversification will prioritize reliability and security over other drivers. Does this affect emission levels? The answer is a bold YES. But the reasoning is simple: energy security allows hospitals to operate, factories to run, and lights to stay on in homes. When that foundation is threatened, emission reductions/climate commitments become secondary. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR UGANDA For a country like Uganda, which imports all its petroleum products and relies heavily on diesel trucks for transport, these global shocks translate directly into the cost of living. Diesel pump prices in Kampala are already rising. When the price of fuel goes up, so does everything else: food, building materials, school fees, healthcare. What happens thousands of miles away shows up at home, and all global citizens are paying the price. For Uganda and East Africa, the crisis underscores a hard truth: energy security cannot be outsourced. Relying on imported fuel is a critical vulnerability that this conflict has laid bare. This is where Uganda’s upcoming oil production becomes not just an economic opportunity but a lifeline assurance. The oil projects, with peak production of about 230,000 barrels per day, represent the foundation of a domestically anchored energy system. But the true gamechanger lies in the planned 60,000 barrel-per-day refinery to serve the East African region. A regional refinery would ensure predictable supply, insulate the region from global price shocks, and create a reliable foundation for industrial growth. It is a lifeline and a cornerstone to the region’s energy security. We have seen this, first hand, in the role that Dangote Refinery has played in this crisis. Critically, developing these resources and pursuing emissions reduction are not mutually exclusive. Uganda and its partner oil companies are already investing millions to adopt best-in-class technologies. Gas flaring and venting are barred under normal operations. System efficiency is optimized, and gas that would otherwise be wasted is being monetized, converted into LPG and used for power generation. This addresses what would have contributed to emissions while creating productive use of the resource. The choice is not between oil and gas or renewable alternatives, as many often try to frame it. Rather, it is a choice between developing these unutilized petroleum resources responsibly or remaining perpetually dependent on imports with unpredictable supply chains beyond Uganda’s control. I believe if this conflict continues, it will push countries to pursue whatever energy sources they can access to ensure security, with less regard for emission implications. The climate price will still be borne by all of us. The author is an environment scientist & climate change negotiator at the Petroleum Authority of UgandaThe post Iran war: When survival is threatened, energy security comes before emissions appeared first on The Observer.