Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Two Elliott Wave Scenarios To Watch

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Bitcoin At A Crossroads: Two Elliott Wave Scenarios To WatchBitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDew-forecastBitcoin has staged a strong recovery from its recent lows, but the structure of the advance suggests that the move is corrective rather than impulsive. From an Elliott Wave perspective, this opens the door to multiple valid interpretations, with both a standard ABC correction and a more complex WXY pattern currently in play. As price approaches key resistance zones, the market is entering a critical decision phase. Primary Count: ABC Correction Near Completion Under the primary scenario, Bitcoin’s recovery is unfolding as a classic ABC corrective structure. In this view, the current leg higher represents wave C, which is now approaching a potential completion zone between 79k and 80k. This area stands out as a technical resistance, where sellers could begin to re-enter the market. If this count is correct, Bitcoin may soon face rejection, followed by a broader decline. However, for bears to regain meaningful control, the market would need to deliver a sharp and impulsive move back below the 65k level. Without such confirmation, any pullbacks may remain corrective and limited in scope. Alternative Count: Complex WXY Structure The secondary scenario suggests that Bitcoin is forming a more complex WXY corrective rally, which allows for additional upside before a larger trend reversal takes place. In this case, the market may be working through wave Y, with further subdivision into an ABC structure. This interpretation opens the door for an extended move toward the 81k–84k resistance zone, which is further reinforced by the presence of the Bitcoin CME gap in that region. However, the path higher may not be linear. Before reaching those higher levels, Bitcoin could first undergo a corrective pullback in subwave (B), potentially retesting the 75k–70k support area. Such a retracement would be considered healthy within the broader structure and could set the stage for a final push higher in subwave (C) of Y.