CL (Crude Oil) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Thursday (Apr 23)Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX:CL1!MyAlgoIndexJune WTI crude settled sharply higher on Wednesday, closing up 3.29 or 3.67 percent at 92.96 before easing modestly into the Globex reopen near 92.67. The session high of 93.73 marked a fresh weekly peak and stretched the five-session advance off the 78.97 print on April 17 to nearly nineteen percent. The weekly candle is now plus 12.43 percent, the most aggressive weekly move in this contract since the opening thrust off the mid-December 52-week low at 55.12. The rally is not a technical story. It is a physical-supply shock layered onto a market that had already climbed from a January 59.70 trough to a March cycle peak at 104.34 before correcting. Persian Gulf producers have throttled output by an estimated six percent as local storage approaches capacity during the continued Strait of Hormuz disruption, and intraday headlines oscillated between escalation and de-escalation, leaving the contract pinned in a 92.33 to 92.98 afternoon range, a proven exhaustion pattern after a vertical move. The forward curve remains in backwardation despite the price surge, signalling the market is pricing this as a near-term squeeze rather than a structural shift. That creates two Thursday implications, fresh escalation still produces gap continuation, while any credible diplomatic progress unwinds the premium rapidly. News and Macro Context: The central driver remains the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Iran-US standoff. Tehran continues to regulate traffic through the strait, fire on vessels, and seize tankers, while the US maintains a naval blockade on Iranian-linked shipping and intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters on Wednesday. Persian Gulf oil producers are now running roughly six percent below normal output as local storage hits capacity, a genuine physical constraint rather than a positioning story. Offsetting the supply-shock is the White House decision to extend the Iran ceasefire beyond the original Wednesday deadline. That extension took some immediate escalation risk out of the market and contributed to the pullback from the 93.73 high into the close. Executive-branch messaging remains open-ended, with the press secretary repeating there is no firm deadline for an Iran proposal, that public and private Iranian messaging diverges, and that any resumption of hostilities is at the president's discretion. Treat each headline cycle as binary, the difference between a one-dollar pullback and a five-dollar spike is a single wire bulletin. The Wednesday weekly government inventory report was characterized as mixed for crude and products, which is why the headline trade dominated over the standard inventory-surprise reaction. Refinery utilization remains firm heading into the seasonal transition to summer driving demand, and crack spreads widened alongside the RBOB gasoline contract, which closed up 3.84 percent and posted a fresh three-week high. Brent settled near 102 a barrel, reflecting the same war premium. Equities printed fresh all-time highs on Wednesday on strong corporate earnings and the ceasefire extension, with the S&P 500 up one percent. The risk-on tone is supportive for crude demand at the margin, but the bull case from here depends on whether the blockade-and-seizure cycle continues or diplomatic channels gain traction. Supply and Technical Context: The 20-day average directional index reads 32.86 with positive directional strength at 21.87 edging above negative at 19.65, confirming a trending environment with bulls in modest control. The 50-day ADX at 27.75 with plus-DI 24.60 over minus-DI 16.76 confirms a firmer medium-term uptrend. The multi-indicator composite registers 40 percent buy overall with strengthening direction, up from 16 percent the prior week and a step below the 80 percent reading one month ago. The split is long-term 67 percent, short-term 40 percent, medium-term 25 percent, a profile consistent with a trend that has paused to digest its recent thrust. The statistical expected range computed from the 14-day measure sits near 6.36 points per day, which, from the 92.67 reference, produces a Thursday envelope of roughly 88.90 to 96.40. Options implied volatility at 90.47 percent implies a slightly wider one-day band of approximately 88.00 to 97.40. The 14-day RSI of 54.61 and 14-3 stochastic percent-K at 57.40 both sit in neutral territory. Weekly structure holds a third consecutive higher-high, higher-low candle above the 5- and 20-week averages, with resistance at the 104.34 March high and an intermediate shelf at 101.17 to 101.34. The daily candle closed above the 5-day average at 89.03, the 20-day at 91.71, the 50-day at 82.72, and every longer-term benchmark down to the 200-day at 66.05. The 4-hour and 1-hour charts show the same Wednesday 92.33 to 92.98 range that has not broken in either direction overnight. Liquidity pools sit above 93.73 at the weekly high and below 91.44 at the standard pivot, with 92.69 corresponding to the 38.2 percent pullback level from the 4-week high and aligning with retail order concentrations visible in market-depth tools. Forecast: Overnight: Consolidation within 92.30 to 93.10 is the base case as the pullback from 93.73 to 92.67 has not violated the 92.33 session low. A break below 92.33 opens 91.55 and the 91.44 pivot, a break above 93.10 reopens 93.73 and 94.19. Morning Session: The 09:45 ET US Services and Manufacturing PMI flash prints are the first scheduled macro catalyst. A firm Services read above 50.5 supports demand expectations and leans price toward the 93.73 to 94.19 supply zone, a miss below 50 reintroduces growth concerns and pressures price toward 91.55. The first 15 minutes of regular trade are historically a whipsaw window for crude, position after 09:45 ET. Afternoon: Volume tapers into the afternoon and the session is susceptible to trend continuation when directional conviction builds. A break above 93.10 with follow-through targets the pivot first resistance at 95.25. A break below 92.33 targets the 91.44 pivot first, then 89.16 on capitulation flow. A range-bound morning argues for holding the 92.33 to 93.10 box through the pit close at 14:30 ET. Daily Close: Highest-probability close is a retest of the 92.96 Wednesday settle, secondary outcome 93.50 on residual bullish pressure. A close above 93.73 marks a seventh consecutive higher close and leans structure toward 95.25 to 97.20 into Friday. A close below 92.33 would be the first bearish engulfing off the Hormuz rally and invites a test of 91.44 Friday. Expected Range: 88.90 to 96.40 on the 14-day measure, slightly wider 88.00 to 97.40 on implied-volatility math. Implied 1-day range is approximately 6.36 points. Most Likely Path: Path A (55%), range consolidation 92.30 to 93.20 with two-way rotation around the 92.67 reference. Path B (30%), continuation higher on a 93.10 break, grind toward 95.25 on fresh Hormuz headlines or firm US PMIs. Path C (15%), mean-reversion selloff through 92.33 on ceasefire progress, test of 91.44 to 90.07. Thursday Events: , 08:30 ET, US Initial Jobless Claims (fcst 210k, prior 207k) and Continued Claims , 09:45 ET, US S&P Services PMI Flash (fcst 50.6, prior 49.8), Manufacturing PMI (fcst 52.5), Composite , 10:00 ET, US Trade Rep. Greer speaks , 11:00 ET, ECB Nagel speaks , 13:00 ET, US 5-Year TIPS auction , No weekly government inventory report (Wednesday was release day) , No API inventory report (Tuesday was release day) , Iran-Hormuz diplomatic headlines remain the binary risk through the full session Resistance: , 93.73, weekly high and session rejection, first line of defense for bears , 94.19, 18-day moving average stall zone , 95.25, pivot first resistance point , 95.45, target price (computed) , 97.20, 1 standard deviation resistance , 97.53, pivot second resistance point , 101.17, 1-month high Support: , 92.96, Wednesday settle and immediate demand base , 92.69, 38.2 percent pullback level from 4-week high , 92.33, Wednesday low and session anchor , 91.55, 18-day moving average , 91.44, standard pivot point , 90.07, 50 percent pullback level from 4-week high/low , 89.16, pivot first support point , 88.72, 1 standard deviation support How I'm seeing it: , The dominant driver is geopolitical supply disruption, not technicals. Every chart-based setup must account for binary headline risk through the full session. , The rally from 78.97 to 93.73 in five sessions is a supply-shock premium, not a demand acceleration. Wednesday's pullback signals the market has absorbed the initial shock and now needs fresh inputs to extend. , Composite technical opinion at 40 percent buy with strengthening direction is a constructive backdrop for long entries on pullbacks. The medium-term 25 percent read reflects the correction from 104.34, not fresh bearish positioning. , 20-day and 50-day ADX readings with positive directional strength above negative confirm a trending environment favoring buy-the-dip over fade-the-rally on directional setups. , Implied volatility at 90.47 percent compresses edge for premium sellers and argues for smaller size on any directional entry, with stops wider than a typical session would suggest. , Primary Setup: Long 91.50 to 91.80 on pullback to the 18-day average and standard pivot zone, stop 90.85, target 93.60 first leg and 95.20 on extension. Leverages intact uptrend structure, 67 percent long-term composite buy, strengthening 20-day ADX, and the still-active Hormuz supply constraint. , Alternative: Short 95.00 to 95.40 on tag of pivot first resistance, stop 96.20, target 93.70 to 92.00. Only valid if the 95.25 tag occurs without a fresh Hormuz escalation accompanying it, pure mean-reversion fade of the 3 to 5 dollar overshoot. , Invalidation of the long-side bias, daily close below 90.00 breaks the 50 percent pullback level at 90.07 and the 5-day average at 89.03. , Primary risk to both setups, a formal Iran-US ceasefire agreement or credible Hormuz reopening would compress the war premium by 4 to 7 dollars in a single session. Good Luck !!!