Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair as early as May 16?S&P 500SP:SPXSwissquoteThis is the key monetary policy question of mid-2026: who will be the next Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, and what monetary policy will be conducted in the coming months as geopolitics fuels an energy crisis and a rebound in inflation? Jerome Powell’s term at the head of the Fed ends on Friday, May 15, and Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh earlier this year to succeed him. However, ultimately, it is the U.S. Senate that confirms or rejects the President’s choice, and there is a full process to follow, particularly within the Senate Banking Committee. Several steps must be followed in order to reach the final validation of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, and some stages could still lead to a blockage of his appointment. Opposition would need to be minimal for him to be confirmed in time to take over from Powell as early as May 16. But this is not yet guaranteed. Below are the various steps and obstacles to overcome for Kevin Warsh to take office as Fed Chair in spring 2026. In detail, the initial stages have been completed without major difficulty. The presidential nomination and the formal transmission of the file to the Senate were quickly validated, placing the candidacy on institutional tracks. However, ethical and financial vetting, although advanced, remains a standard point of attention in such processes, particularly due to asset disclosures and potential conflicts of interest linked to Warsh’s past roles in the private sector. The real political test now lies in the hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. This step, currently underway, is decisive as it allows senators to question the candidate on his vision of monetary policy, his stance on inflation, and his independence from the executive branch. In a context of heightened political tensions, this hearing represents a high risk of blockage. The table below summarizes the steps required to validate Kevin Warsh’s appointment as Fed Chair. In the short term, the vote of this same committee is the most critical hurdle. Scheduled for the end of April, it could either validate the candidacy or significantly hinder it in the event of strong partisan opposition. Even if the committee gives a favorable opinion, nothing is guaranteed: the final vote in the full Senate remains required and is also expected to be uncertain, with a risk of rejection. Thus, at this stage, the probability that Kevin Warsh will actually be in office by May 16 is about 50%. Any delay in the parliamentary calendar or political opposition could postpone his appointment. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.