SPY - Tight trading range is likely , 2 choices for next weekState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETFBATS:SPYRaw_Dogging_The_WickSPY and QQQ are having extremely strong rallies more like leadership names than index based funds . The market is in " Always in long" ( AIL) . Traders should not short . Bulls want to buy any pullback and see the current move as part of a year long move up spike and channel bull trend . Bears see the move as a buy climax/exhaustion move and want to see a pullback to prior ATH and then with more selling pressure a move to 66% and 50% areas. We are getting climactic here , which is why I sold my TQQQ play ,last week locking in profits and going to cash expecting a pullback . But so far pullback has been minimal . I believe that SPY is in a tight trading range the past 5 trading days with Thursday ( 4/23) confirming this but then with Friday breaking above and closing above . I think that If I am right about the TTR then odds favor no follow-through for Monday and a break back into the range , on the other hand we could always keep going up and if we do I think that the 200% vs measured move of markets prior 5 month trading range is a possible target . Personally I don't trade my multi day conversion trades with fixed targets but I like to look to see where the market might go , nonetheless. 2 scenarios for next week and my plan Scenario 1 - (slightly lower odds ) Bulls push market higher and Fridays move sees follow-through . I don't think we get it for Monday but if I am wrong then I plan on buying this. I personally think the odds favor a move down back into the TTR and that this scenario is lower odds for Monday . I will use SPXL as my trading vehicle if this scenario plays out . Scenario 2- ( higher odds ) The market pulls back into the TTR, traders could short with the right context but the problem/difficulty with this is that the range of the TTR is only about 1.45% and makes the environment difficult for shorting . There are lots of buyers not just in the TTR but also below that and below that ect . I will wait if this happens for more context and a better trade . Final note about QQQ vs SPY- QQQ vs SPY - QQQ is much stronger than spy and while spy has probably formed a TTR , instead QQQ has continued to make new highs . I see QQQ in a tight trending trading range vs spy's TTR. But I am using SPY for this analysis because I think it shows a clearer picture of general market conditions at this time and is a better trade of the two for now.