EUR/USD drops to 1.1670 — wave 4 base or start of bigger unwind?Euro vs US DollarTHINKMARKETS:EURUSDThinkMarketsEUR/USD pulled back from 1.1850 to the 38.2% Fib at 1.1670, triggered by Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf resigning, dollar strength on oil at $103, and some of Eurozone PMIs sliding into contraction. This video maps the two structural scenarios and why 1.1640 is the line that decides both. Key topics covered - Geopolitical dollar bid: Ghalibaf's resignation, Israel's defence minister warning of resumed operations, and Trump's Navy order pushed oil to $103 and lifted the dollar. - Eurozone PMIs: The EZ composite fell to 48.6 and services to 47.4, with France at 47.6 but price passthrough contained. The ECB is still expected to hold at 2% for a 7th consecutive meeting on April 30. - 38.2% Fib cluster at 1.1670: The pullback lands where a wave 4 correction should, with the 100% Fib extension and 38.2% Fib confluencing in this zone. The move to 1.1850 extending beyond the 161.8% Fib supports the impulsive structure. Scenarios & trade plan Bullish — wave 5 continuation: If 1.1670 holds, a bullish setup opens towards 1.1850, then the wave 5 target at 1.1940. Stop below 1.1640, with the room to the target making this a well-structured sccenario. Bearish — corrective ABC unwind: If 1.1640 gives way on a daily close, the entire rally from 1.1410 becomes an ABC correction. Watch 1.1550 as the next support, as it could be wave 1, with 1.1410 back in play below that.Is 1.1670 the wave 4 floor that launches the next leg to 1.1940, or does the dollar stay in control and unwind the whole move? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.