July wheat price trap at 620, testing support at 605 for re-accu

Wait 5 sec.

July wheat price trap at 620, testing support at 605 for re-accuChicago SRW Wheat FuturesCBOT_DL:ZW2!Hung-JK1. Headline & Executive Summary July wheat traps at 620, testing 605 support for re-accumulation. The market entered a technical correction after being strongly rejected at the 620 threshold. The medium-term bullish structure is still preserved with key support at 605'0; The trading tendency prefers to stand on the sidelines and wait for withdrawal signals to re-establish a Buy (Long) position. 2. Review previous session recommendations Scenario 1 (70%) in the April 22 session plan of breaking beyond 615 to increase the Buy position was activated when the price reached the highest level of 620'4. However, the upward momentum was not maintained until the end of the session, turning the breakthrough into a peak liquidity sweep (Liquidity Sweep) and bull trap (Bull Trap). Newly opened Buy positions at the high price range are currently under pressure of losses as the closing price retreated further to 607'0. The stop loss at 598 has not yet been breached, but the position is currently at short-term risk. 3. Overview of trends & price structure Wheat is operating in a secondary correction after an unsuccessful short-term top breakout. Although the series of advanced bottoms from the 526 mark still serves as the backbone for the medium-term uptrend, the formation of a price rejection candle at 620 has interrupted the acceleration of the Markup impulse wave. The chart's logic shows that the market is shifting from the price push phase to the re-accumulation phase to absorb all the supply from peak-clamped positions. The decline in price close to the 607 pivot reflects a cautious mentality, forcing the index to seek balance at lower support areas to consolidate the foundation before moving towards further targets at 650 and 680 on the Weekly frame. 4. Technical prices Resistance: 614'0 – 620'4 – 630'0 Support: 605'0 – 598'4 5. Price Action & Volume Analysis Price Action, Volume & Open Interest: The candle on April 22 was a Shooting Star candle with an extremely long upper shadow, closing close to the session low at 607'0. Data correlation: Price decreased + Low volume (47.7K) + OI decreased (from 233.9K to 231.4K) → The market lost liquidity, the downtrend gradually weakened. This combination confirms that the decline mainly comes from the phenomenon Long Liquidation (weak Buyers are forced to close their positions) rather than the entry of new Short Selling cash flow. The decrease in OI along with the price shows that the selling pressure will not last too long due to the lack of push from new Short positions. Market sentiment & Cash flow: Hedge funds (Non-Commercial) are taking profits and liquidating short-term Long positions after identifying the price trap at 620. Optimistic sentiment is shaken, giving way to a defensive state. Commercial traders currently have no signs of opening additional purchase price insurance orders at this hovering price range; They are patiently waiting for the price to retest the 598 - 602 range to carry out disbursement, causing the market to lack immediate proactive demand support. Price Structure & Waves: The advanced peak–trough sequence is still the dominant structure, but current Price Action confirms the price is in corrective wave 4 after completing the liquidity sweep at the 620'4 peak. Based on the trend arrow diagram, the price is retreating to retest the demand at the old breakdown of structure (BOS) zone. The current price position is right next to the dynamic support; The medium-term bullish structure will only be disabled if the price decisively penetrates the 598'4 mark accompanied by a rebound increase in Open Interest in a downward direction. 6. Next session's trading scenario Scenario 1 (65%): Price holds support at 605'0 and a pullback candle appears with low volume. Action: Continue to hold the existing Buy position, wait for increased Buying when the price surpasses 613'0. Target: 630'0 – 650'0. Stop loss: 598'0. Basic: Technical adjustment rhythm to eliminate surfing positions before continuing the Markup phase. Scenario 2 (35%): Price continues to slide and decisively breaks the 605'0 mark right at the beginning of the session. Action: Liquidate all short-term Long positions, stand aside and observe the reaction at the 598'0 area. Target: Not applicable. Stop Loss: Not applicable. Basis: The correction wave widened in amplitude due to the chain stop-loss effect of the Long side getting stuck at the top. 7. Recommendations by audience Manufacturer/importer (Buyer): Pause the plan to lock in purchase costs (Long Hedge) at this price range. Patiently wait for the price to retest the strategic support zone 598 - 602 and a signal of supply exhaustion appears (OI is flat) before starting to disburse funds again to optimize cost price. Trade/export (Seller): Can carry out short selling if the price recovers slightly to the 612 area but cannot maintain the base. However, absolutely do not establish a long-term hedging position (Short Hedge) when the bullish structure on the Weekly frame is still moving towards the target of 796.