FARNAZ FASSIHI2026年4月23日When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute power over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the United States. His son and successor does not play the same role.阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊担任伊朗最高领袖期间，对战争、和平及对美谈判等所有事务拥有绝对决策权。但他的继任者，也就是他的儿子，并未扮演同样的角色。Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son, is an elusive figure who has not been seen and whose voice has not been heard since he was appointed in March. Instead, a battle-hardened collective of commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and those aligned with them are the key decision makers on matters of security, war and diplomacy.他的儿子阿亚图拉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊自3月就任以来始终行踪成谜，从未公开露面，也未发表过任何讲话。取而代之的是，由伊斯兰革命卫队身经百战的指挥官及其盟友组成的集体，成了安全、战争与外交事务的核心决策者。“Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board,” said Abdolreza Davari, a politician who served as senior adviser to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he was president and knows Mr. Khamenei.“穆杰塔巴现在治理国家的方式就像是董事会主席，”曾在马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德总统任内担任高级顾问、与哈梅内伊相识的政治人士阿卜杜勒礼萨·达瓦里说。“He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions,” Mr. Davari said in a phone interview from Tehran. “The generals are the board members.”“他高度依赖董事会成员的建议和指导，所有决策都由他们集体做出，”达瓦里在德黑兰接受电话采访时表示。“这些将军们就是董事会成员。”This account of Iran’s new power structure is based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, two former officials, two members of the Revolutionary Guards, a senior cleric familiar with the inner workings of the system and three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei well. Nine other individuals with ties to the Guards and the government also described the command structure. They all spoke on the condition they not be identified because they were discussing sensitive matters of state.本文对伊朗新权力结构的描述基于对六名伊朗高级官员、二名前官员、二名革命卫队成员、一名熟悉体系内部运作的资深神职人员，以及三名与哈梅内伊私交甚笃人士的采访。另有九名与卫队和政府有联系的人士也描述了这一指挥体系。由于涉及敏感国家事务，所有受访者均要求匿名。Mr. Khamenei, who was selected by a council of senior clerics as the new supreme leader, has been in hiding since American and Israeli forces bombed his father’s compound on Feb. 28, where he also lived with his family. His father, wife and son were all killed. Access to him is extremely difficult and limited now. He is surrounded mostly by a team of doctors and medical staff who are treating the injuries he sustained in the airstrikes.穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊由高级神职人员委员会选为新任最高领袖，自2月28日美以联军轰炸他与家人共同居住的其父官邸后便一直躲藏。他的父亲、妻子和儿子均在此次空袭中丧生。如今，要接触到他极为困难且受到严格限制，他身边主要是一支由医生和医护人员组成的团队，正在为他治疗空袭中受的伤。2月28日，阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊德黑兰官邸的受损情况。Senior commanders of the Guards and senior government officials do not visit him, fearing that Israel may trace them to him and kill him. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is also a heart surgeon, and the minister of health have both been involved in his care.革命卫队高级指挥官和政府高官都没有去探望他，担心以色列会通过追踪他们找到并杀死他。本身是心脏外科医生的总统马苏德·佩泽什基安与卫生部长也参与了他的治疗工作。Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health. One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery.据四名了解其健康状况的伊朗高级官员透露，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊虽伤势严重，但神志清醒、思维清晰。他的一条腿接受了三次手术，目前正在等待安装假肢；他的一只手也做过手术，正在缓慢恢复；他的面部和嘴唇严重烧伤，导致说话困难。官员们补充说，他最终需要接受整形手术。Mr. Khamenei has not recorded a video or audio message, the officials said, because he does not want to appear vulnerable or sound weak in his first public address. He has issued several written statements that have been posted online and read on state television.官员们表示，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至今未录制任何视频或音频信息，因为他不想在首次公开讲话中显得脆弱或声音虚弱。他已发布多份书面声明，在网上发布并由国家电视台宣读。Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next, who travel on highways and back roads, in cars and on motorcycles until they reach his hide-out. His guidance on issues snakes back the same way.传递给他的信息都是手写密封在信封中，通过值得信赖的信使组成的人链接力传送——信使们驾车或骑摩托车，穿梭于公路和乡间小路，最终抵达他的藏身之处。他对各项事务的指示，也通过同样的方式传回。The combination of concern for his safety, his injuries and the sheer challenge of reaching him has resulted in Mr. Khamenei’s delegating decision making to the generals, at least for now. Reformist factions, as well as ultra-hard-liners, are still involved in political discussions. But analysts say that Mr. Khamenei’s close ties to the generals, whom he grew up with when he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war as a teenager, have made them the dominant force.出于安全考虑、自身伤势以及难以接触的现实，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊至少在目前已将决策权下放给了将军们。改革派和极端强硬派仍参与政治讨论，但分析人士指出，穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊与将军们的深厚渊源——他十几岁时志愿参加两伊战争，与他们一同成长——使军方成为了主导力量。President Trump has said that the war, along with the killings of layers of Iran’s leaders and security establishment, has ushered in “regime change” and that the new leaders are “much more reasonable.” In reality, the Islamic republic has not been toppled. Power is now in the hands of an entrenched, hard-line military, and the broad influence of the clerics is waning.特朗普总统曾表示，这场战争以及伊朗多层级领导人和安全机构人员的死亡已经带来了“政权更迭”，新领导人“理性得多”。但现实是，伊斯兰共和国并未被推翻，权力如今掌握在根基稳固的强硬派军方手中，而神职人员的广泛影响力正在减弱。“Mojtaba is not yet in full command or control,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa for Chatham House who has contact with people in Iran. “There is, perhaps, deference to him. He signs off or he is part of the decision-making structure in a formal way. But he is presented with fait accompli presentations right now.”“穆杰塔巴尚未完全掌握指挥权或控制权，”与伊朗国内有联系的英国查塔姆研究所中东与北非项目主任萨纳姆·瓦基勒说。“人们或许对他表示尊重，他在形式上会签字批准，或者以正式身份参与决策体系。但现在，摆在他面前的都是既成事实的方案。”The speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former Guards general and the lead negotiator with the United States in Pakistan, said in a television address on Saturday that the U.S. proposal for a nuclear deal and peace plan and Iran’s response had been shared with Mr. Khamenei and his views taken into account when making decisions.伊朗议会议长、前革命卫队将军、赴巴基斯坦与美国谈判的首席代表穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫周六在电视讲话中表示，美国提出的核协议与和平计划以及伊朗的回应，都已通报穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊，决策过程中也考虑了他的意见。2024年，伊朗革命卫队学员在德黑兰参加纪念两伊战争44周年的年度阅兵式。The Rise of the Guards 革命卫队的崛起The Revolutionary Guards, formed as protectors of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, have steadily amassed power through top political roles, stakes in key industries, domination of intelligence operations and cultivation of ties with militant groups in the Middle East that share Iran’s enmity toward Israel and the United States.伊斯兰革命卫队成立之初旨在保卫1979年伊斯兰革命，它通过担任高层政治职务、控股关键产业、主导情报行动，以及与中东地区同样仇视美以的武装组织建立联系，逐步积累了权力。But under the elder Mr. Khamenei, they still had to mostly adhere to his will as a singular religious figure who also served as commander in chief of the armed forces. He empowered the Guards, and over time they became the tool and pillar of his rule.但在老哈梅内伊时期，他们仍需基本服从这位集宗教领袖与武装部队总司令于一身的绝对权威。老哈梅内伊一手扶持了革命卫队，久而久之，卫队成为了他统治的工具和支柱。Mr. Khamenei’s killing on the first day of the war created a void and an opportunity. The Guards rallied behind Mojtaba in the succession struggle that ensued and played an instrumental role in his selection as Iran’s third supreme leader.战争首日，老哈梅内伊的身亡制造了权力真空，也带来了机会。在随后的继任斗争中，革命卫队全力支持穆杰塔巴，并在他当选伊朗第三任最高领袖的过程中发挥了决定性作用。The Guards have multiple levers of power. The commander in chief is Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, the newly appointed head of the Supreme National Security Council, is a former hard-line commander of the Guards. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a commander, has served as the top military adviser to both father and son supreme leaders.革命卫队手握多重权力杠杆：总司令是艾哈迈德·瓦希迪准将；新任最高国家安全委员会主席穆罕默德·巴盖尔·佐勒加德尔曾是革命卫队强硬派的指挥官；指挥官叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维将军则先后担任哈梅内伊父子两代最高领袖的首席军事顾问。“穆杰塔巴不是真正的最高领袖；他或许名义上是领袖，但没有他父亲那样的绝对权威，”在伊朗拥有广泛人脉的国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹说。“穆杰塔巴受制于革命卫队，因为他的地位、乃至整个体系的存续，都要归功于他们。”“Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director of the International Crisis Group who has extensive contacts in Iran. “Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them.”受访官员表示，将军们将美以战争视为对政权生存的威胁，经过五周的激烈战斗，他们自信已经成功遏制了这一威胁。在每个关键节点，都是他们主导决定战略和资源调配。The officials interviewed say the generals view the war with the United States and Israel as a threat to the regime’s survival, and after five weeks of fierce fighting, the generals are confident that they have contained the threat. At every juncture, they have taken the lead in deciding strategy and the use of resources.他们关闭霍尔木兹海峡，颠覆了全球经济，并利用战争中的任何战果作为筹码，在国内排挤政治对手。知情官员称，民选总统及其内阁已被边缘化，被告知只需专注于国内事务，比如保障食品和燃料的稳定供应，确保国家正常运转。They have upended the global economy by closing the Strait of Hormuz and have used any gains in the war as leverage to outmaneuver political rivals at home. The elected president and his cabinet have been sidelined and told to focus only on domestic affairs, such as providing a steady flow of food and fuel, and to make sure the country is functioning, according to knowledgeable officials.官员们表示，战前主导对美谈判的外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐，如今已被边缘化，取而代之的是议会议长加利巴夫。The foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has been marginalized in the negotiations that he led with the United States before the war, the officials said. Mr. Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament, has taken the lead instead.新任最高领袖一直予以配合，极少甚至从未反对过将军们的决定。The newly minted supreme leader has followed along, rarely if ever objecting to the generals, they said.正是革命卫队制定了伊朗袭击以色列和波斯湾国家、以及关闭海峡航运的战略；是他们同意与美国临时停火，批准了与美国的秘密外交和直接谈判；也是他们从内部挑选了加利巴夫，由他带队前往伊斯兰堡与美国副总统JD·万斯会谈。It was the Guards who came up with the strategy for Iran’s attacks on Israel and the Persian Gulf states, along with the closing of the strait to maritime traffic. They were the ones who agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the United States and approved back-channel diplomacy and direct negotiations with the United States. They tapped Mr. Ghalibaf from among their own ranks to lead the talks with Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad.这是伊朗与美国的谈判代表团中首次出现多名革命卫队的军方将领。For the first time, several military generals from the Guards were part of the Iranian delegation negotiating with the United States.伊朗官员和另外三名熟悉穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的人士在德黑兰接受采访时表示，他对卫队的顺从部分是因为刚接任领导职务，缺乏父亲那样的政治声望和宗教影响力，部分则源于他与卫队深厚的个人渊源。革命卫队推选穆罕默德·巴盖尔·加利巴夫带队前往伊斯兰堡，与美国副总统JD·万斯举行会谈。Iranian officials and three others individuals who know Mojtaba Khamenei said in interviews from Tehran that his deference to the Guards was partly because he was new to the leadership role. He lacks the political stature and religious clout that made his father such a singular force. And it is partly because of his deep personal ties to the Guards.哈梅内伊17岁时志愿参加两伊战争，被分配到革命卫队的哈比卜营。这段经历塑造了他，也让他结下了一生的情谊。随着时间推移，该营的许多成员都晋升到了有影响力的军事和情报岗位。When Mr. Khamenei was 17, he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war. He was deployed to a brigade of the Guards called the Habib Battalion. The experience shaped him, and he made lifelong bonds. As they grew and aged, many members of the battalion rose into influential military and intelligence roles.哈梅内伊后来在神学院完成学业，获得阿亚图拉头衔，成为一名什叶派学者和法学家。他长期在父亲的官邸工作，为父亲协调军事和情报行动，这一角色进一步巩固了他与将军和情报主管们的联系。Mr. Khamenei completed his studies at a theological seminary, reaching the rank of ayatollah, considered a scholar and jurist of the Shiite faith. He worked at his father’s compound, coordinating military and intelligence operations for his father, a role that further cemented his ties to the generals and intelligence chiefs.哈梅内伊在哈比卜营的密友包括：革命卫队前情报主管、神职人员侯赛因·塔埃布；上世纪80年代担任指挥官、现已被召回服役的穆赫辛·雷扎伊将军。加利巴夫也是他的多年老友。Among Mr. Khamenei’s close friends from the Habib Battalion is the Guards’ former intelligence chief, the cleric Hossein Taeb; and Gen. Mohsen Rezaei, who commanded him in the 1980s and has been called back from retirement. Mr. Ghalibaf is also a longtime friend.据伊朗官员和三名与哈梅内伊有私交的人士透露，多年来，哈梅内伊、塔埃布和加利巴夫每周都会在阿亚图拉的官邸共进漫长的工作午餐，他们被称为“权力三角”。2009年总统选举中落败的温和派神职人员迈赫迪·卡鲁比曾指控三人干预选举，为时任总统艾哈迈迪内贾德操纵了结果。卡鲁比的失利引发了长达数月的动荡、抗议和暴力冲突。For years, Mr. Khamenei, Mr. Taeb and Mr. Ghalibaf met once a week for long working lunches at the ayatollah’s compound, according to Iranian officials and the three individuals who know Mr. Khamenei personally. They became known as the “triangle of power.” The trio was accused by a more moderate cleric, Mehdi Karroubi, of intervening in the 2009 presidential election in which he was a candidate and rigging the results in favor of the incumbent president, Mr. Ahmadinejad. Mr. Karroubi lost, and the election upset led to months of upheaval, protests and violence.达瓦里说，这些私人关系如今深刻影响着哈梅内伊与将军们的互动。他们彼此直呼其名，视对方为同辈，而非上下级。These personal relationships are now playing heavily into the dynamic between Mr. Khamenei and the generals. They are on a first-name basis and view one another as peers, not superior and subordinate, said Mr. Davari. 分歧显现Differences Emerge将军们并非决策层唯一的声音。伊朗政治从来不是铁板一块，其制度设计本身就包含平行的权力结构。分歧和分裂在伊朗政治人物和军事指挥官中一直很常见，很多时候还会公开化。佩泽什基安总统和阿拉格齐外长也是国家安全委员会的成员。The generals are not the only voices at the table. Iranian politics have never been monolithic, and the system is designed to have parallel power structures. Disagreements and divisions have always been common and, in many instances, public among Iranian political figures and military commanders. Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi also have seats on the National Security Council.但在当前的集体领导下，最终拍板的是将军们，而且目前他们内部没有出现混乱的迹象。But under the current collective leadership, it is the generals who prevail and currently there are no signs of disarray among them.周二，就在伊美谈判代表团准备飞往伊斯兰堡举行第二轮会谈之际，将军们叫停了谈判。连日来，围绕如果特朗普继续维持对伊朗的海上封锁，伊朗是否还应与万斯谈判的问题，内部分歧一直在发酵。当时已有约27艘伊朗船只在试图进出伊朗港口时被拦截。On Tuesday, as the Iranian and American negotiating teams prepared to fly to Islamabad to meet for a second round of talks, the generals pulled the plug. For days differences had simmered over whether Iran should continue talks with Mr. Vance if Mr. Trump maintained a sea blockade on Iran. Already, some 27 Iranian ships had been turned around while trying to enter or exit Iranian ports.官员们称，特朗普在社交媒体上连发多条帖子，扬言要迫使伊朗屈服于他的所有要求，并再次威胁如果伊朗不达成协议，就轰炸该国的发电厂和桥梁。随后美国扣押了两艘伊朗船只，这进一步激怒了将军们，他们认为此举违反了停火协议。Mr. Trump had fired off a series of social media posts about forcing Iran to give in to all his demands, and he had renewed threats to bomb the country’s power plants and bridges if Iran did not agree to a deal. The United States then seized two ships belonging to Iran, further infuriating the generals, who thought the move amounted to a violation of the cease-fire, officials said.据了解会议内容的官员和两名革命卫队成员透露，总司令瓦希迪和其他几位将军认为，谈判毫无意义，因为封锁表明特朗普根本无意谈判，只是想逼迫伊朗投降。The commander in chief, General Vahidi, and several other generals argued that talks were futile because the blockade showed Mr. Trump was not interested in negotiations and wanted to pressure Iran to surrender, according to officials and two members of the Guards who were briefed on the meeting.官员们表示，佩泽什基安和阿拉格齐对此表示反对。佩泽什基安警告说，战争已给伊朗造成约3000亿美元的经济损失，迫切需要解除制裁以进行重建。双方在伊朗应将海峡封锁推进到何种程度的问题上也出现了分歧。The officials said Mr. Pezeshkian and Mr. Araghchi disagreed. Mr. Pezeshkian warned of the dire economic losses from the war, estimated by the government to be about $300 billion, and the need for sanctions relief for reconstruction. Disagreements also emerged over how far Iran should push with its closure of the strait.最终将军们获胜，谈判宣告破裂。The generals won, and the talks fell apart.特朗普延长了停火，但仍维持封锁，称除非伊朗“分裂的领导层”拿出自己的和平方案，否则封锁不会解除。没人知道接下来会发生什么。也不清楚革命卫队是否会在伊朗核问题上向美国做出足够让步，以促成和平协议——尤其是在冻结铀浓缩活动和交出400公斤高浓缩铀库存这两个争议焦点上。Mr. Trump extended the cease-fire but is keeping the blockade in place until, he said, Iran’s “fractured leaders” present their own peace proposal. What happens next is not clear. Nor is it clear whether the Guards will allow enough concessions to the United States on Iran’s nuclear program for a peace deal to materialize, including on the two contentious issues: freezing enrichment and giving up the 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium.伊朗国内一个虽不占主导但立场强硬的边缘派系反对做出任何让步，认为只要继续战斗，伊朗就能击败以色列和美国。强硬派的支持者们每晚都走上街头举行集会，挥舞旗帜，誓言为伊斯兰共和国流血牺牲。阿拉格齐曾在社交媒体上发帖称伊朗将开放海峡，结果遭到强硬派的猛烈抨击，指责谈判团队背叛了支持者。A hard-line fringe faction in Iran, while not dominant, has opposed making any concessions, believing that if Iran continued fighting it would defeat Israel and the United States. Supporters of the hard-liners have filled the streets with rallies at night, waving flags and pledging their blood for the Islamic republic. When Mr. Araghchi posted on social media at one point that Iran was opening the strait, the hard-liners attacked him, accusing the negotiating team of betraying their supporters.这些激进分子是极端强硬派总统候选人赛义德·贾利利的支持者。贾利利虽已被排除在决策圈外，但仍有一定影响力，包括掌控着由他弟弟运营的国家电视台。一些人要求哈梅内伊发布视频或音频信息，向公众确认他支持与华盛顿的谈判。在德黑兰的一次集会上，人群向哈梅内伊发出呼声：“领袖，下令吧，我们会追随你。”The firebrands are supporters of Saeed Jalili, an ultra-hard-line presidential candidate, who has been sidelined from making decisions but still has some influence, including over state television, which his brother runs. Some demanded that Mr. Khamenei make a video or audio message to confirm to the public he was on board with the negotiations with Washington. At a rally in Tehran, crowds addressing Mr. Khamenei chanted, “Commander, give us the order and we will follow.”加利巴夫于当地时间周六晚在国家电视台向全国发表讲话，向伊朗民众保证哈梅内伊参与了决策。他的语气既强硬又务实，称伊朗取得了击落美国战斗机等军事成就，但现在是时候将这些成果转化为外交谈判的筹码了。Mr. Ghalibaf addressed the nation on state television on Saturday night local time, assuring Iranians that Mr. Khamenei was involved. He struck a defiant but pragmatic tone, saying that Iran had gained military achievements, including shooting down an American fighter jet, but that now it was time to leverage those gains in diplomatic negotiations.“有时候，我听到人们说我们彻底打败了他们，”加利巴夫说。“不，我们没有打败他们；你们必须明白这一点。我们的军事成就并不意味着我们比美国更强大。”翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site