Market Overview — 23.04US Dollar IndexCAPITALCOM:DXYTylerWhite_Alright guys, good morning. Let’s break down what’s going on. We’re still watching the situation in the Strait of Hormuz — and right now it’s basically a double blockade. And as strange as it sounds, it’s actually working… unfortunately, in a bad way. Satellite data shows that traffic through the strait has almost stopped: over the past 24 hours, only one or two container ships passed through, and not even oil tankers. In reality, Iran has once again shut down shipping and is not allowing oil vessels to pass. In response, the U.S. is also acting aggressively — over the past day, they’ve turned around or sent back to port 29 ships linked to Iranian logistics. And this idea that the U.S. can force a deal through a blockade, in my view, looks pretty naive. If Iran didn’t make concessions after a month of bombardments, why would a naval blockade suddenly change their position? Trump is simply thinking in his own framework — everything is about money. If economic pressure hurts him, then cutting off Iran’s cash flow should force them to make concessions. But there’s an important point here. Remember the protests in Iran back in January — they started in the bazaars. The trigger was a sharp currency devaluation, which forced sellers to constantly raise prices. That led to unrest — first economic, then political, with calls for regime change. Those protests were among the largest in Iran’s history and were suppressed very harshly. Officially, more than 4,000 deaths were reported — and the real number is likely higher. And here’s the key: economic pressure on Iran has already been there. There were protests, there was war, there were strikes. So expecting that simply cutting off currency inflows will quickly trigger some internal collapse — that’s very questionable. Even if such a scenario is possible, it would take months, more likely a year or longer. And Trump simply doesn’t have that kind of time. In fact, he may be taking more damage from this situation himself. I actually disagree with the idea that time is on the U.S. side right now. Quite the opposite. Trump operates in a competitive демократия, and economic problems translate directly into political risk. Look at what’s happening in the U.S. Yesterday there was another vote in the Senate — Democrats are actively trying to limit his war powers. At the same time, media pressure is increasing, including discussions about his condition. And Republicans have to keep pushing back — all of this ahead of midterm elections. Moreover, they’re already starting to lose important votes. For example, the recent redistricting situation in Virginia — Democrats won that. And Virginia is a key swing state. That’s a clear signal that Republican positions are weakening. So in this context, the question is: who can hold out longer — Iran or the United States? Especially if there’s no active phase of military conflict. In my view, Iran might actually have more staying power here. Now on the market side. Yesterday we got U.S. crude oil inventory data — again above expectations, about +2 million barrels for the week. But you have to look deeper: gasoline and diesel inventories are actually declining. So crude is being stockpiled but not refined. And that points to shortages in refined products. We can already see it in prices — gasoline in the U.S. is approaching $4.5–5 per gallon. That’s a serious political pressure point. Finally, today we’ll have something besides Iran — PMI data, business activity indices. EU, UK, U.S. — we’ll see how manufacturing, services, and the overall economy are holding up. After the data comes out, we’ll be able to better assess how much this whole situation — oil shortages and geopolitical tension — is impacting the real economy. For now, the market is relatively calm, no sharp moves. So we keep trading as usual. I’ll see you all in the sessions 👍