Fundamental Market Analysis for April 27, 2026 GBPUSDBritish Pound/US DollarSAXO:GBPUSDFresh-Forexcast2004GBP/USD is trading near 1.35500, remaining sensitive to Middle East news and expectations for central bank decisions. The pound is supported by recent UK data: inflation remains above the Bank of England’s target, while business activity and retail sales came in better than expected. This reduces the likelihood of rapid policy easing and helps sterling stay above its recent lows. Nevertheless, the external backdrop is working against the pair. Prolonged US-Iran negotiations are supporting demand for the dollar, while rising energy prices are increasing risks for global inflation. For the United Kingdom, where pressure on consumers and businesses remains noticeable, expensive energy may worsen expectations for household spending and corporate profits. As a result, the positive impact of domestic statistics is partly offset by concerns over growth sustainability. This week, attention is shifting to the Fed and Bank of England decisions. If the Fed confirms a cautious approach to rate cuts, the dollar may retain support, especially in the absence of progress regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Given that the pound has already priced in strong domestic data, while the geopolitical premium remains on the dollar’s side, the base-case scenario for today is a decline in GBP/USD. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.35500, SL 1.35800, TP 1.34600