3 min readKolkataApr 29, 2026 08:56 PM IST First published on: Apr 29, 2026 at 08:52 PM ISTAt the end of crucial Assembly elections in West Bengal, majority of the exit polls released on Wednesday put the Opposition BJP ahead of ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).With polling in the second phase concluded on Thursday, preliminary figures from the Election Commission (EC) put the voter turnout at 92.01%. In the first phase on April 23, turnout hit 93.19%. Both turnout figures are record highs for the state.AdvertisementExit polls have often missed the mark across elections in India; in 2021, several exit polls not only failed to capture the TMC dominant showing with 215 seats in the 294-member Assembly, but some polls also gave the BJP an outright majority. The BJP had won 77 seats, well short of the 148-seat majority mark.This year, according to Matrize, the BJP is likely to get 146 to 161 seats, while the TMC is likely to get 125 to 140 seats. Other parties are predicted to win 6 to 10 seats.Poll Diary predicted a BJP win with 142 to 171 seats, with the TMC trailing at 95 to 110 seats and others taking 3 to 9 seats.AdvertisementAccording to P-Marq, the BJP is likely to win 150 to 175 seats, the TMC 118 to 138 seats, and others may get 2 to 6 seats.Chanakya Strategies has predicted 150 to 160 seats for the BJP, with the TMC dropping to 130 to 140 seats and other parties taking 2 to 6 seats.Praja Poll gave the BJP the highest tally among the exit polls released on Wednesday, putting the party at 178 to 208 seats, followed by the TMC at 85 to 110 seats, and others between 0 and 5 seats.Peoples Pulse, however, has gone against the grain, predicting the BJP to win 95 to 110 seats, and giving the TMC an outright majority at 177 to 187 seats, with other parties winning 1 to 4 seats.After a close contest between the TMC and BJP, experts caution that definitive conclusions cannot be drawn from the exit polls alone. The EC’s contentious Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls have further complicated predictions. While the TMC used the exercise, which led to the deletion of 91 lakh voters, to attack the BJP, the impact of the roll revision on the ground remains unclear.you may likeTMC spokesperson Arup Chakraborty said, “On many occasions we have seen exit polls fail to match the reality. The 2024 Lok Sabha results and the results of 2025 Bihar Assembly polls are just some examples of it. Central forces not only targeted our workers and leaders, but also heaped on atrocities on common voters. They acted in a partisan manner. Even after all this, the TMC will win the Assembly elections.”State BJP president Samik Bhattacharya, however, countered the TMC, saying, “Common people participated spontaneously in today’s election and voted against the divisive politics of the TMC. From the hills to the sea, the massive turnout witnessed today proves that the people of Bengal are voting fearlessly for change. Against the long-standing misrule and political intimidation of the TMC, people have united. A voter turnout exceeding 90% indicates that people no longer have faith in the existing system.”“Today, Bengalis have voted to reclaim their lost dignity and to protect the true political culture of Bengal,” Bhattacharya said, adding that the TMC attempted to “impose a culture of division”.