Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2026 EURUSDEuro/US DollarSAXO:EURUSDFresh-Forexcast2004EUR/USD is trading around 1.16850, remaining under pressure after the dollar strengthened at the end of the week. The main factor is demand for the US currency as a safe-haven asset: US-Iran negotiations are showing no progress, while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices elevated. This is negative for the euro, as rising energy costs increase pressure on the eurozone’s import-dependent economy. Weak business activity data is an additional factor weighing on the pair. In April, the eurozone private sector contracted at the fastest pace since November 2024, while Germany downgraded its 2026 economic growth forecast due to the energy shock. Against this backdrop, investors are more cautious about the euro’s outlook, even despite expectations that the European Central Bank will keep rates unchanged for now. The dollar is also supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will not rush to cut rates while assessing the impact of the conflict on inflation and growth. US bond yields remain attractive for dollar buyers. If tensions in the Middle East persist, the pair may continue to decline, so preference is given to selling. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.16850, SL 1.17050, TP 1.15950