Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk:the battle for the oral obesity marketEli Lilly and CompanyBATS:LLYActivTradesBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades The market has delivered its initial verdict swiftly: Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) has disappointed in the commercial rollout of its Foundayo pill, with just 3,707 prescriptions in its second week in the United States, well below the 8,000 expected by the consensus. In parallel, Novo Nordisk (CPH: NOVO-B) is consolidating its dominance in the oral segment with Wegovy, reaching 18,410 prescriptions over the same period and reinforcing its leadership in the global obesity treatment market. The fundamental reading is clear: Novo Nordisk maintains a structural advantage supported by its positioning in the GLP-1 segment and an industrial capacity that allows it to meet growing demand without apparent friction. Eli Lilly, despite a robust pipeline and significant growth expectations toward 2026, faces an immediate execution challenge in a key segment needed to justify demanding valuations, in an environment where the market penalizes any deviation from forecasts. On the technical side, Eli Lilly (Ticker AT: LLY) has entered an adjustment phase after marking all-time highs at $1,132.06 in January, now trading within a range between $868 and $976, with a loss of intermediate supports and a clear sign of exhaustion in the prior momentum. The recent structure reflects a boomerang-type movement, with an inability to sustain breakouts and a return to equilibrium zones, leaving the price vulnerable toward the next key support at $781.39. In the short term, the $861 level acts as a critical reference to prevent further structural deterioration. The bearish crossover of the 50- and 100-day moving averages, along with an RSI around 35% and a MACD in negative territory, reinforces the narrative of a correction from the bullish leg that began in October 2025. Nevertheless, a positive earnings surprise could reactivate the price toward $976 and, in extension, toward the psychological $1,000 level. Novo Nordisk (Ticker AT: NVO), for its part, shows a different dynamic. After a broader downtrend that appears to have found a floor in the first quarter, the stock is beginning to build a technical recovery supported by demand and a positive news flow. The recent rebound from the $35.12 area has gained traction around the point of control near $37.60, breaking above resistance at $39.88 and closing at $41.20, opening the door to a move toward $46 if momentum continues. A further advance toward the $53 zone would be key to invalidating the prior bearish bias. Indicators support this early shift, with RSI recovering from depressed levels and MACD in positive territory, although without full confirmation of a trend reversal. In terms of risk appetite, ActivTrades’ proprietary indicators point to an extreme risk-on environment in the United States, which is not translating with the same intensity into Eli Lilly, while in Europe capital flows show a more gradual recovery after March outflows, which does appear to be supporting Novo Nordisk. The obesity market remains one of the most dynamic in the pharmaceutical sector, but the current divergence highlights that narrative alone is not enough: execution is decisive. Novo Nordisk is capitalizing on both operational and market momentum, while Eli Lilly faces the challenge of regaining short-term credibility to prevent the technical adjustment from turning into a deeper correction. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.